Fading A China Trade Deal

Trump is going to have to cave on some major issues as it appears China is gearing up to play some hardball and is ready to rumble in the next round of negotiations.  If there are any, that is.

China is sensing thatpatience is running thin in America over Trump’s trade war.

While rural Americans were some of Trump’s biggest supporters, they are losing patience with a yearlong trade war that the Trump administration has reached an impasse without closing a deal with China. – Global Times

Xi is also probably studying the polls, smells political blood, and sees a president desperate for a deal.  Moreover, the polls in the states that matter most continue to get worse for the President.

This story just broke to tonight in the Washington Post,

The Trump administration is increasingly concerned about prospects for a trade deal with China, amid an unexpected reshuffling of the Chinese negotiating team and a lack of progress on core issues since the Group of 20 summit in Japan, according to U.S. officials and senior Republicans briefed on the discussions.

…“This has to be seen as a loss of confidence in Liu He and the desire of the leadership to bring in someone more politically savvy,” said Dennis Wilder, a former China analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. “I am sure his instructions are to get tougher with the U.S.”  –Washington Post

Can Trump cave now?  Going into the campaign?

The only thing predictable about the President is he doesn’t like to appear weak.  But, then again, he has the ability to convince himself that weakness is strength in the classic Orwellian style.  Go no further than taking a few steps north of the 38th parallel for confirmation.

Get Shorty

We are getting very close to sequel time, folks  – Get Shorty 2.0   Everyone is lathered up over the Fed and very few realize the extreme valuations levels of the many of macro metrics.

Give them a little more room to run, get your levels ready, and your finger on the trigger.  Let the market tell you when it’s time to fire.

Finally, we will never bet against the great hedge fund manager, Paul Singer.