Investors Split Focus Between Future Quarters, Driving S&P 500 Volatility

The last two weeks have been especially volatile for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), where as of the close of trading on Friday, 9 August 2019, our dividend futures-based model describes the level of the S&P 500 as being consistent with investors splitting their forward-looking focus between the future quarters of 2019-Q4 and 2020-Q1.

The primary driver of the market’s volatility over that time has been investors shifting their attention back and forth between these two future quarters. Those shifts have themselves been driven by changing investor expectations for the upcoming timing of future Fed rate cuts and the potential resumption of a new round of quantitative easing.

As of Friday, 9 August 2019, here are investor expectations as provided by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool for what the Fed will do with the Federal Funds Rate at its Federal Open Market Committee’s upcoming meeting dates:

These probabilities indicate investors are expecting three quarter point rate cuts, in 2019-Q3, 2019-Q4, and 2020-Q1, with the most uncertainty around that last future quarter.

Here are the first week of August 2019′s market-moving headlines:

Monday, 5 August 2019

• Oil falls 3% as trade war concerns hit demand outlook
• Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China July services sector grows at slowest pace in five months: PMI

U.S.-China trade war escalations:

• China’s yuan drops below 7 per dollar as trade war escalates

• China yuan’s slide past 7/dollar had policymakers’ blessing: sources

Trump jabs Fed, calls China’s currency move ‘major violation’

• U.S. designates China as currency manipulator

China said to ask state buyers to halt U.S. farm imports: Bloomberg reporter

Wall St. sinks as yuan slide inflames U.S.-China trade dispute

Tuesday, 6 August 2019

• Brent oil in bear market as China-U.S. trade tensions mount
• U.S.-China trade war:

• Bigger trouble developing in China: China’s July exports seen falling again, import slump to deepen: Reuters poll
• Explainer: U.S. branding of China as currency manipulator offers few new remedies

Fed minions confused on next steps:

• Fed’s Bullard: No need to ‘pile on’ rate cuts
• Fed’s Harker calls for research to understand ‘unruly’ economic factors

Wall Street climbs more than 1% after China moves on yuan

Wednesday, 7 August 2019

• Oil dives nearly 5% to seven-month low on surprise U.S. stock build, trade war
• Bigger trouble developing in China: Circulating in China’s Financial System: More Than $200 Billion in I.O.U.s
• Entire US Curve Inverts As 30Y Yield Drops Below Effective Funds Rate
• Recession fears hammer U.S. 30-year yields to near-record low

• Trump says U.S. Federal Reserve ‘too proud to admit mistake’
• Fed’s Evans signals support for reducing borrowing costs further

S&P 500 erases big losses to end up; investors buy bargains, yields off lows

Thursday, 8 August 2019

• Oil rises more than 2% on firm yuan, expectations of more OPEC cuts
• U.S. 30-year, 15-year mortgages hit lowest since Nov 2016: Freddie Mac
• S&P 500 posts biggest daily gain in two months as rebound continues

Friday, 9 August 2019

• Oil rises on European stock draw despite demand slowdown forecast

• U.S. oil drillers cut rigs for sixth week in a row: Baker Hughes

Trump says U.S. economy ‘handcuffed’ by Fed, wants further rate cut

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China producer prices fall for first time in three years, deflation worries resurface
• China’s builders brace for winter: buy less land as home sales weaken
• China to Buy Stake in Another Troubled Regional Bank: Report
• IMF: China may need more stimulus if trade tensions escalate

Wall Street ends down amid more trade woes, high volatility

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz put together a short list with an equal number of positives and negatives in the week’s economics and market-related news.