The Market Ticker - There Are No Coincidences

Humans are very good at evaluating certain things.

Put an image of two colors in front of 100 people and 99% of them will be able to tell you which is the darker shade of the two.  Essentially all humans, even the blind, can differentiate between a dog and a cat.  If something is very probable (e.g. “will it rain today”) most humans can get pretty close to right, even with ridiculously-deficient information (e.g. no access to satellite, radar or surface weather maps.)

But humans are very, very poor at evaluating certain other things.  We’re very bad, for example, at evaluating the risk of a nuclear accident resulting in our death by radiation poisoning.  Witness the screamfests after Fukushima all the way over here in America, yet the amount of contamination that reached our shores was, while measurable, a…….

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