End Game?

One of the rules of journalism seems to be that a headline ending in a question-mark deserves the answer “no”.  Still, we’re in such uncertain times; we’ve pretty much eschewed prediction; and nobody want to advance even a tentative observation with the risk it will be trashed within the day.

So “?” it is.  However …

Publication of the Boris Plan does seem to have characteristics of the starting-whistle of the End Game.  Immediately rubbished by the other side before they’d even read it; and statements like “we’ll have to see how far they are willing to move on this before we go any further“  – those are classic gambits from Negotiating 1.01.   So much, so risible.  The more important factors, IMHO, are these:

• it plays to the rapidly streamlining moods of the hour, which I would characterise as (a) Revoke Now (© J.Swinson);  (b) Get It Done (© B.Johnson);  (c) errrr… (© S.Milne).
• [note that I don't list No Deal Now Or We'll Drag Everything Down To The Bottomless Pit, © contested between ERG and N.Farage.  Haven't heard very much of that just recently] 
• the players that matter for its success have (apparently) been squared away: ERG, DUP (& maybe a handful of Labour MPs?).  For myself, with total lack of any inside information, Farage is an open issue in this regard [see above]
• Corbyn has done nothing more subtle than reject it outright on the spot, and in so doing, trying to bundle up all Labour MPs into this rejection with a whisk of his hand – i.e. he has responded exactly as expected which means exactly as catered for 

It’s pretty clear how Cummings/Johnson reckons this plays out from here.  Move to a Commons vote, irrespective of whatever noises are coming from Brussels (see below); win vote; present Brussels with a you-can-have-it-if-you-want-it fait accompli; if they still reject, Boris can No-Deal legitimately and legally.

Caveats:

• the Pure Malice faction will be attempting to get a 100%, un-nuanced, total and utter rejection from the whole of the EU 27 and every organ of the EC.  That might cloud the issue if it’s put to a Commons vote 
• as stated here several times of late, the Grieve-Starmer-Bercow faction have proved to be fairly ingenious, and will be on the task 24/7.  Can’t be sure (again, from my position of ignorance) what other outrageous parliamentary tactics they may try.

Still: ERG + Tory Mainstream (incl most of the unwhipped rebels)  + DUP = majority.  The key is sheer battle-fatigue, and maybe panic, amongst the Spartans – partly engendered by how ‘clever’ Grieve-Starmer-Bercow have been in showing them just how difficult it will be to drive for the Bottomless Pit.

Anyhow, that’s my weekend summary.  Yours?

ND