S&P 500 Continues Setting New Record Highs

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) continued setting new highs in the first full week of November 2019, buoyed by positive changes in the outlook for dividends and earnings for the component companies that make up the index, which ended the week at an all-time-high closing value of 3,093.08.

We’re nearing the end of the period to which our impromptu redzone forecast applies, where the trajectory of the S&P 500 appears to be converging with the expectations associated with the alternate trajectory for 2020-Q3, indicating that investors are focusing their attention on that distant future quarter.

That makes sense because this future quarter has seen the greatest change in the outlook for its dividends during the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the prospects for the Fed taking action in this quarter to cut the Federal Funds Rate dropped back below the 50% mark in the last week, with the latest probabilities of rate changes at various upcoming Fed meeting dates from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool suggesting that investors are leaning against any rate changes in 2020.

Investor expectations have changed by quite a wide margin during the past several weeks. Here is some of the new information that investors absorbed into their expectations from the past week:

Monday, 4 November 2019

• Oil rises more than 1% on U.S.-China hopes and improved outlook
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:

• German manufacturing stuck in recession, factory job losses accelerate: PMI
• Euro zone factories stuck in a slump as trade ware still biting

Bigger stimulus developing in emerging markets:

• Negative rates, more easing to prop up emerging markets: Max Life’s Vora

Wall St. extends recent gains on trade deal optimism

Tuesday, 5 November 2019

• Oil gains 1% as China pushes Trump for more tariff rollbacks
• Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China October services sector growth slips to eight-month low: Caixin PMI

Bigger stimulus developing in China and Japan:

• China cuts loan rate for first time since 2016, seeks to soothe bond market
• BOJ’s Kuroda calls for fiscal, monetary policy mix to spur growth

Fed minion admits both uncertainty and confidence:

• Fed’s Barkin: Conflicting signals make U.S. economy hard to read
• Fed’s Barkin: It’s a good time to pause interest rates
• Fed’s Kashkari says U.S. rates are modestly accommodative

S&P 500 index retreats slightly after recent record

Wednesday, 6 November 2019

• Fed is data-dependent from here, NY Fed’s Williams says
• Fed’s Evans: U.S. economy in ‘good place’, but watching inflation
• Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China’s October exports, imports to contract at sharper pace: Reuters poll

Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:

• Euro zone economy at risk of contracting in the fourth quarter, PMI shows

Wall St. ends near flat; healthcare shares gain but trade deal delay weighs

Thursday, 7 November 2019

• Oil rises above $62/bbl on hopes for U.S.-China trade deal
• Fed minion speaks out against last rate cut:

• Fed’s Bostic says he would have dissented against last rate cut, economy is solid

Bigger stimulus developing in Japan:

• BOJ’s Kuroda: to continue massive monetary stimulus to hit 2% inflation

Dow, S&P 500 hit record closes as investors digest trade news

Friday, 8 November 2019

• Oil rises after falling on Trump comments on U.S.-China trade
• Trump says has not agreed to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods

• China, U.S. agree tariff rollback if phase one trade deal is completed

Denial runs through the Eurozone:

• Germany doesn’t need stimulus, it’s not in recession, finance minister says
• ECB will continue current policy until conditions improve, Vasle says

Bigger stimulus developing in Asia and the Pacific:

• Japan’s Abe tells cabinet to compile stimulus package to support economy
• Australia central bank gives up on wage growth, open to further easing

Indexes trade near flat, pause as trade deal doubts resurface

Over at The Big Picture, Barry Ritholtz outlines the positives and negatives he found hidden among the past week’s economics and market-related news.