Very Fragile Stock Market Now

The high yield market, a barometer for risk appetite has put in a lower high and is losing support now below the 50 day moving average, while the S&P is still reaching new highs.  This should be a waving red flag.

This weekly chart of the volatility index (VIX) is at long term support and showing very complacent readings.  Further, a coil pattern is apparent that suggests a large potential breakout in volatility may be imminent.

A wedge like weekly pattern in the gold mining ETF GDX suggests a breakout to the upside could occur soon.  In the past, gold stocks have often rallied while the overall stock market sold off.

At this point all that is required is a trigger event for these scenarios to play out.
Could it be trouble in the US China trade negotiations?
Or a new Federal Reserve policy?
Or some other event, such as Iran acting up in the Middle East?

Regardless, the environment is quite fragile, so be careful out there.