Keeping Stock Market Returns In Perspective

We just want to pass on some data to keep this year’s stock rally in perspective.  We are seeing a lot super giddy behavior out there as the S&P500 makes a new all-time high but…wait for it…at record high valuations by almost any measure.

Once again, seeing the analysts retrofit their views of the fundamentals of past price action.   That is not for new us.  We used to trade, and trade a lot, but learned its almost impossible to beat the ‘bots.   We are back to buying low and selling high though we do put on an occasional trade.

Facts

The data show that the S&P500 index is up 28.50 percent this year, 29.44 percent annualized and up 37 percent from the 2018 Christmas Eve closing low.   But… up only 7.85 percent on an annualized basis from the September 2018 local high and just 6.21 percent annualized from the January 2018 local high.

To keep President Trump’s Tweets about the “greatest stock market ever” in context:  the S&P500 is up an annualized 12.73 percent since he took office versus an annualized 18.91 percent return for all of President Obama’s two terms.

Sure, the rational analysis would concede President Obama took office during a massive economic and stock market crash, but politics ain’t rational folks.  Just check your Twitter feed every morning between 6 am and 9 am every morning.