Read the Beforeitsnews.com story here. Advertise at Before It's News here.
Profile image
By Political Calculations (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views
Now:
Last Hour:
Last 24 Hours:
Total:

The S&P 500 Reaches Toward New Highs

% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.


The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) reached up to set another new record high close during the first full week of January 2020, hitting its new peak of 3,274.70 on Thursday, 9 January 2020, before dropping back slightly to close the trading week at 3,265.35.

Since our alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart for 2019-Q4 captures the past week, let’s update it one last time before we close the books on 2019 for good!

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019Q4 - Standard Model with Redzone Forecast Focused-on-2020Q3-Between 26-Nov-2019 and 07-Jan-2020 - Snapshot on 10 Jan 2020

Looking back over all of 2019, we can confirm that the dividend futures-based model we’ve developed to anticipate the S&P 500′s future trajectory was useful, even during the periods where the model was affected by the echoes of past volatility the U.S. stock market experienced in 2018, which arises as an issue because the model uses historic stock prices as the base reference points from which it projects into the future, which is shown as the tan-shaded regions of the following chart displaying the entire year.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2019 - Final Snapshot on 10 Jan 2020

The red-shaded zones in this chart represent the refined forecasts we added to the standard model to account for the echo effect, where we used a very simple method of “connect-the-dots” to essentially connect points of the forecasts on opposite sides of an echo-affected period after making assumptions for what future quarter would hold investors’ attention during these periods and how much volatility the S&P 500 could potentially experience.

We also tested using dynamic adjustments to allow the redzone forecast ranges to adapt with changes in future expectations, where we fixed one end of these ranges to a past level of the S&P 500 and allowed the opposite end to float along with the model’s standard forecast trajectories. Before 2019, we’ve simply fixed both ends of the redzone forecasts we’ve added to our charts, but the very long duration of the first echo-affected period we faced in 2019 made that approach impractical for developing relatively accurate projections.

That was challenging during 2019. As you can see in the chart, the first echo-affected period spanned almost all of the first quarter and extended into the second quarter. The fourth quarter was almost as difficult.

And yet, we managed to pull it off. Fortunately, we will get a bit of a breather before we might need to add another redzone forecast to the alternative futures charts we’ll present for 2020, where it looks like we’ll have to deal with comparatively short volatility echo-affected periods in 2020-Q2 and in 2020-Q3.

That’s enough talk about 2019. Let’s review the major market-moving headlines that stood out to us during the first full trading week of 2020, where we find it was relatively quiet, except for Thursday when the Fed’s minions were especially active in trying to set the expectations they want investors to have this year.

Monday, 6 January 2020
  • Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone: Euro zone December business activity close to stagnation despite services bounce
  • Wall St. brushes off Middle East tensions as tech-related shares gain
  • Tuesday, 7 January 2020
    Wednesday, 8 January 2020
    Thursday, 9 January 2020
  • Bigger stimulus developing in China: Chinese government shell firms buy cash-strapped companies for first time
  • Fed minions flood the zone to claim they have U.S. interest rates right where they want them:
  • Fed’s Kashkari says rates will be on pause for ‘foreseeable’ future: Fox Business
  • Fed’s Kaplan says rates ‘appropriate,’ flags balance sheet concern
  • Fed’s Clarida says rate cuts were ‘well timed,’ policy likely to remain appropriate
  • St. Louis Fed’s Bullard: Likely ‘soft landing’ for U.S. in 2020
  • NY Fed’s Williams says central bank can avert ‘downward trend’ in inflation expectations
  • Wall Street notches records on trade optimism, Apple gains
  • Friday, 10 January 2020

    Barry Ritholtz succinctly summarized the positives and negatives he found in the economics and market-related news during the past week. Do check it out to get a bigger picture of all that was going on in the first full week of January 2020!

    This post is part of our SP 500 chaos series, where once a week, we not only update what the future for the S&P 500 looks like, we also reference news articles related to the topics that were influencing investor expectations during the previous week, which you might find useful if you should ever need to reconstruct what investors were considering at various points in the past.

    Speaking of which, we’ll return to looking forward in time later this week when we introduce the alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart for 2020-Q1!



    Source: https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-s-500-reaches-toward-new-highs.html
    Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world.

    Anyone can join.
    Anyone can contribute.
    Anyone can become informed about their world.

    "United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

    Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!


    Join our affiliate program and earn extra money by sharing with friends and family or by posting on your social media.


    Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at www.mitocopper.com


    Get our Free Ebook, "Suppressed Health Secrets"  with  Natural Cures THEY don't want you to know!

    APeX - Far superior to colloidal silver! Destroys Viruses, Bacteria, Pathogens with Oxygen plus Silver!

    Supreme Fulvic - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!

    Ultimate Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.

    MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
    Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser!  Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen! 
    Organic Hemp Extract (CBD) - Full Spectrum high CBD (3300mg) hemp extract eases stiff joints, relieves stress and more!
    Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
    Smart Meter Cover -  Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%!  (See Video)


    FINAL WARNING!  Diseases are EXPLODING!  Watch this Video about APeX and You'll THROW AWAY Your Colloidal Silver!  APeX destroys Viruses, Bacteria and other Pathogens with the power of Oxygen PLUS Silver!  Nobody else has a product like THIS!   See why the inventor hasn't been sick in 16 years and why you'll never hear about it on the FAKE NEWS!  Get some now and tell your friends about it too so we can reach more people!  


    APeX Interview - Superior to Colloidal Silver from Lee Canady on Vimeo.


    Learn about APeX Here and Get the 50 Page Report in PDF format.   Call us at 888-809-8385 to order by phone.



    Report abuse
    Loading...
      Loading...

      Comments

      Your Comments
      Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

      MOST RECENT
      Loading...
      Load more ...

      SignUp

      Login

      Newsletter

      Email this story
      Email this story

      If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

      If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.