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New Lévy Flight Event Sinks S&P 500 in Final Week of October 2020

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As if 2020 wasn’t crazy enough already, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) experienced a new Lévy flight event on 28 October 2020, sending the index down 3.5% for the day as investors suddenly shifted their forward looking focus from 2020-Q4 toward the more distant future quarter of 2021-Q1. Overall, the index ended the final trading week of October 2020 some 5.6% lower than the previous week, ending the month at 3,269.96.

Since we’ve already covered that event as an update to the previous entry in the S&P 500 chaos series, let’s update that update through Friday, 30 October 2020 by noting that investors have continued focusing on 2021-Q1 in setting current day stock prices.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2020Q4 - Standard Model (m=+1.5 from 22 September 2020) - Snapshot on 30 Oct 2020

With the outcome of the 3 November 2020 having the potential to greatly affect the expectations for future dividends, here is the latest snapshot of those expectations:

Past and Projected Quarterly Dividends Futures for the S&P 500, 2019-Q4 through 2021-Q4, Snapshot on 30 October 2020

Finally, here’s a sampling of the random onset of new information that investors absorbed in the final week of October 2020.

Monday, 26 October 2020
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
  • ECB minions prepping for big bank merger/bailouts, debate new stimulus round, deal with woke leader:
  • Wall Street closes down on soaring virus cases, U.S. stimulus worries
  • Tuesday, 27 October 2020
    • Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Bigger trouble developing in China, changing recovery plan:
  • ECB minions planning Eurozone bank bailouts:
  • S&P 500, Dow slip on worries about earnings, U.S. stimulus outlook
  • Wednesday, 28 October 2020
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
  • Bigger stimulus developing in the Eurozone:
  • Wall Street sinks 3%, Dow at late July lows as pandemic surges
  • Thursday, 29 October 2020
    • Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Post coronavirus recession recovery signs in Japan, Asia:
  • ECB minions hint at, but deliver, no new stimulus despite lockdowns triggering double-dip recessions:
  • Wall Street rebounds as market eyes tech results, strong U.S. data
  • Friday, 30 October 2020
    • Daily signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • U.S. Senate leader says coronavirus aid bill should advance in early 2021
  • U.S. consumer spending beats expectations in September
  • Fed minions expand small business loan program:
  • Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
  • Recovery signs in Asia:
  • ECB minions demonstrate amazing grasp of obvious:
  • Tech slide, pandemic surge slam Wall Street, biggest weekly loss since March
  • Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz lists 8 positives and 8 negatives he found in the past week’s economics and markets news.


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