Just In Case You Think The Fed Has A Clue
This should dispel the notion.
Can’t wait to hear the Chairman justify zero rate policy and deficit monetization with inflation roaring at > 5 percent. It would be entertaining, if it weren’t so damaging.
Watch Jay Pow stumble over this question of why they are buying $40 billion a month in mortgages when there is a dearth of supply in housing.
Yikes @RudyHavenstein pic.twitter.com/50XeVGJhVL
— Tyler Neville (@Tyler_Neville_) April 28, 2021
The price of Lumber is 5x higher than it was 10 years ago.
Fed: “Ignore, Just Transitory.” pic.twitter.com/ffR2CKvvQZ
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 29, 2021
Where To Inflation?
Here’s a pretty good theoretical model (follow the entire thread) estimating that U.S. inflation may reach double digits by Q1 2022. One of the premises is that monetary authorities have no way out of this rabbit hole and are constrained by the risk of severely disrupting financial markets in an asset dependent economy.
Recall our view that deflation/inflation is a corner solution and Wall Street’s “Goldilocks” scenario is still just a marketing gimmick. Deflation as markets try to move back to mean valuations – a lot lower – or inflation, and lots of it.
1/n How much excesss liquidity has US monetary easing created? And how much inflation will it create?
The P-star model is a way to evaluate that.
— Lars Christensen (@MaMoMVPY) April 29, 2021
h/t CG
Anyone with a better model, lay it on the table. Stop with the “fake news” or “don’t worry” nonsense. CPI prints > 4 percent in May and you heard it here first.
GMM’s Health Battle
CK and I are battling some serious health issues. Mine, an acute skirmish, which I am now recovering.
CK’s, a three-front protracted war. Her courage to get up and fight everyday has been such an inspiration during my little battle. She also saved my life by forcing me to “ignore my primary doctor and aggressively pursue my symptoms.” If not for that, the Grim Reaper would have liquidated my position and GMM would be no more. Thanks, CK.
Source: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/04/29/just-in-case-you-think-the-fed-has-a-clue/
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