Article of the Week from UPFINA
The ISM and Markit manufacturing PMIs went in opposite directions this month. The ISM PMI fell modestly. Keep in mind, this is a diffusion metric. It measures sentiment versus the prior month. It’s very difficult for more businesses to say business is better than the prior month when the prior month had strong results. Anything above 50 would have been impressive based on the very strong comp in March. The manufacturing sector is still strong, but it couldn’t get stronger in rate of change terms (at least in the ISM reading). The biggest increase in cyclical stocks is likely over, but this PMI doesn’t mean they will necessarily fall.
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