The Challenges In Dating The End Of Recessions
from the St Louis Fed
– this post authored by Michael T. Owyang, Assistant Vice President and Economist, St. Louis Fed; Ana Beatriz Galvao, Professor, University of Warwick; and Julie K. Bennett, Research Associate, St. Louis Fed
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally thought of as the authority on deciding when recessions in the United States begin (the business cycle peak) and end (the business cycle trough). Because the committee does not revise the peak and trough dates, it has an incentive to get them right the first time. Consequently, the committee tends to wait a substantial amount of time before determining when a recession begins and ends.
Source: http://econintersect.com/pages/contributors/contributor.php?post=202105290513
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