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The S&P 500 Returns to Record Highs

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The Fed’s minions hit the news streams hard this past week, with most selling the message that the surge of inflation is mostly transitory and won’t require the Fed to start boosting U.S. short term interest rates before 2024. That message seemed to take hold among investors, with the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) returning to record high levels on the expectation that outlook will hold. At least for now.

In the meantime, we find the trajectory of the S&P 500 falling well within the range of the latest redzone forecast in the alternative futures chart, which is based on the assumption investors will mostly focus on the upcoming quarter of 2021-Q3 over the next several weeks.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2021Q2 - Standard Model (m=-2.5 from 16 June 2021) - Snapshot on 25 Jun 2021

We weren’t kidding when we said the Fed’s minions were out in force in front of the news media during the past week. Their outsized role in an otherwise slow news week is really apparent in our roundup of market-moving news headlines:

Monday, 21 June 2021
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed officials open debate on bond taper
  • Fed’s Powell sees ‘sustained improvement’ in economy, notable rise in inflation
  • ECB minions claim progress in changing inflation management policies, also claim Eurozone inflation is transitory:
  • ECB’s Centeno says euro zone inflation rise is temporary, sees no permanent effects
  • Wall Street ends sharply higher, led by surging Dow
  • Tuesday, 22 June 2021
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions on board with higher inflation, won’t raise rates anytime soon:
  • Fed’s Daly says could get to taper threshold late this year
  • Fed’s Mester says framework needs to be more explicit on financial stability
  • NY Fed’s Williams says discussion about adjusting rates still quite a ways off
  • ECB minions say not worried about inflation running hot:
  • Tech leads way to Wall Street rebound as Powell promises steady hand
  • Wednesday, 23 June 2021
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions getting comfortable with not-so-transitory inflation:
  • Eurozone showing positive recovery signs:
  • Tesla lifts Nasdaq to record-high close, S&P 500 dips
  • Thursday, 24 June 2021
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Job hole or inflation? Fed policymakers split over risk view
  • Fed’s Barkin: not at full employment, inflation rise temporary
  • Bigger inflation developing all over:
  • Nasdaq and S&P 500 end at record highs; Dow rallies
  • Friday, 25 June 2021
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions says inflation no big deal, Americans to go back to work in fall (after pandemic unemployment benefits expire):
  • Mixed recovery signs in Asia:
  • Bigger inflation developing all over:
  • ECB minions really want to keep stimulus going, won’t take success as a sign to stop:
  • Nike, bank stocks push S&P 500 to new highs as inflation fear calms
  • Looking for more news? With Barry Ritholtz’ weekly summary still on vacation, you might consider tapping Bloomberg’s RSS business news feed to get a bigger picture than what we’ve focused upon in this edition!


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