What The Trimmed Mean Says About Future Inflation: Broadening Price Pressures Ahead
from the Dallas Fed
– this post authored by Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Marc P. Giannoni and Evan F. Koenig
While headline measures of inflation have jumped to multiyear highs, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate remains below its prepandemic level. What should we conclude from these readings?
Does the current low trimmed mean reading suggest that all-items inflation will fall back below the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2 percent longer-run target? Our analysis suggests that, while some of the recent inflation surge will dissipate, some price pressures will persist and others likely will emerge. In fact, our forecast for both headline and trimmed mean PCE inflation for year-end 2022 is approximately 2.4 percent, albeit with upside risk and a significant amount of uncertainty.
Source: http://econintersect.com/pages/contributors/contributor.php?post=202107110522
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