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August 22, 2021 Seasonal Forecasts: Part II, NOAA Comparison with JAMSTEC

Monday, August 23, 2021 2:57

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Written by Sig Silber

We published the NOAA Long-Term Forecast Part I on August 19, 2021. Tonight we compare the NOAA forecast for Alaska and CONUS with the JAMSTEC forecast. We show the maps side by side in a table with a summary. Obviously, the farther out you look, the less confidence you have in the forecasts and thus also the differences in the forecasts. Also provided are the JAMSTEC World Forecasts. They are worth looking at. JAMSTEC has sent us their forecast privately as their website is still not functional. What they have sent us includes a monthly forecast for each of the first three months so we are also able to compare the NOAA and JAMSTEC September forecasts this time. Surprisingly the amount of disagreement is pretty significant.

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