Nothing

The advance polls are busy. Really. It could signal voters are eager for change. Or maybe they just don’t want to be packed tightly in line on election day. Meanwhile Delta’s turned into a storm, especially in the West. Hugely in AB. It’s the pandemic of the unvaccinated, but everyone is suffering as a result. ICUs in Alberta will be full in a few days. The premier admitted failure, declared a state of emergency and is bringing in a Vaxport.

Nobody, save one man, wanted an election in a pandemic. Nor did we know even a month ago that a 4th wave would spike in this fashion. With a high national vaccine rate, we felt immune. The prime minister thought it would be a slam-dunk to gain majority control of Parliament. Now it appears to have backfired. We have a mess. An expensive one. Over $600 million for a vote that will actually leave Canada in a more precarious state.

As I write this the current CBC poll tracker (likely the best available tool) shows Libs and Cons with equal support, the Dippers at 20% and Mad Max polling above the BQ and twice that of the discredited Greens. But remember that in 2019 the Conservatives garnered more votes than Liberals, yet Trudeau formed government. That’s because politics is math and with a first-past-the-post electoral system winners need only a third of the people to back them, while regional voting blocks skew everything.

So here are the probabilities, as of September 16 – A Lib majority has a 14% chance of occurring, while the odds of a Trudeau minority administration are at 56%. The Conservatives have a 1% chance at majority and 28% liklihood of O’Toole leading a minority government.

The NDP is poised to make gains, ponying on their eat-the-rich fiction. Jagmeet, the unlikely TikTocker, could double the party’s seat count from 24 to something just shy of 50 (say the polls). Meanwhile Max’s PPC has Hoovered up the protest, anti-lockdown, anti-mask, anti-vax, pro-choice, hospital-protesting, anti-immigrant, pissed-off Trumpian vote in a way only a pandemic could have allowed. So his 6% support is probably right out of the hide of the Cons, and could ensure T2 emerges on top. The best Max can do is win one seat. His. In doing so he will help re-elect the current PM.

In short, it’s a swamp. A hobbled but victorious Trudeau supported by a hopped-up Singh will give Canada a de facto coalition government tilting way left. Expect a lot more spending. Plus deficits extending well into your grandchildren’s lives. More social division. And, yup, more taxes. How could it be otherwise?

The Libs have already proposed an extra tax on foreign real estate buyers. A big tax hike on banks. And insurance companies. A new tax on homeowners who sell their properties too soon. And all that will not prevent the deficit from being another $150 billion next year. If associate-prime minister Jag has a say, we’ll also get dentacare, pharmacare, free tuition and the need for a wealth tax.

That won’t be enough, however. The numbers don’t add up. The ranks of the .01%ers are far too thin in Canada to cover even a fraction of the promised spending while supporting the existing debt. And meanwhile we’ll be no closer to defeating the virus, making real estate affordable for average families or getting a seriously ugly national balance sheet under control so monetary policy can normalize.

So, says the National Bank in its electoral analysis, if you have a high income, unrealized capital gains or run a business, you might want to duck. Or pray. The Dippers promised $215 billion in new spending in this campaign – three times what Trudeau pledged and four times the amount O’Toole would provide. The NDP has campaigned on a general corporate tax increase, more punitive treatment of high-income earners and a huge jump in the capital gains inclusion rate.

The spending, the debt, the deficit and tax increases are all inflationary – and already the cost-of-living increase is at a 13-year high, with beater houses selling for $1 million in the burbs. It’s ironic those most supportive of ‘progressive’ leftist politics are the same house-hungry young buyers whose votes may guarantee they never afford a home.

Finally, this sad electoral exercise strips the nation of cohesion needed to stand against a pathologic foe. As the knuckle-draggers protest outside hospitals, confounding health care workers, our leaders sink. They lie. The scrap for power. Pass blame. And use the bodies of infected, dying people as stepping stones to 24 Sussex Drive.

“Do we give into anti-vaxxers in the Conservative Party and go ahead with half-measures?” Trudeau asked a Montreal crowd yesterday, even knowing it’s Mad Max, not O’Toole, who’s egging on the infidels.

When we need confidence, we get conflict. Where we crave inspiration, there is invective. As we seek hope, only hyperbole. In the end, it was an election about nothing. And we got less.

About the picture: “Chester is a 10-month-old fox red labrador,” writes Jason. “He was having a great time, pictured here in the Alberta mountains during his first backpacking trip. When not digging holes in our garden or chewing on prescription sunglasses Chester enjoys tug, fetch and swimming. Thanks for the free blog. The consistent and logical opinion on financial topics is always refreshing.”