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The S&P 500 Goes on 'Roller Coaster' Ride, But Remains Within Redzone

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The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) had what Reuters called a ‘rollercoaster’ week, but when all was said and done, stock prices still fell within the expected range.

Or rather, the range that would be expected if investors were mainly focusing on 2022-Q1 in setting current day stock prices. Or on 2021-Q4, since there’s not much difference between the expectations for this quarter and 2022-Q1 at this point of time.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2021Q3 - Standard Model (m=-2.5 from 16 June 2021) - Snapshot on 17 Sep 2021

As for the market’s rollercoaster week, Friday, 17 September 2021 was a quadruple witching day, with a slew of options and futures contracts expiring. That includes the dividend futures contract for 2021-Q3, which as far as the alternative futures chart is concerned, is over.

If you read the marking moving headlines of the week below carefully, you can see why 2021-Q4 or 2022-Q1 are points of interest for investors looking forward in the story considering the timing of when the Fed will start tapering off its pandemic stimulus bond buying program, which it identifies as likely to happen in either November (2021-Q4) or in December (2022-Q1), where the quarters are defined by dividend futures contract expiration dates.

Monday, 13 September 2021
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Bigger inflation developing all over:
  • BOJ minions thinking stimulus policies of previous boss were wrong:
  • S&P 500 snaps losing streak as tax hikes, inflation data loom
  • Tuesday, 14 September 2021
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
  • Bigger inflation developing all over:
  • U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes
  • Wednesday, 15 September 2021
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Positive signs in Australia, Japan, Eurozone:
  • Bigger trouble developing in China:
  • ECB minions think Delta COVID is overrated and fear inflation hump, inflation hits multi-year high in Canada, UK:
  • S&P 500, Dow gain on factory data, strong oil prices
  • Thursday, 16 September 2021
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions have huge ethics problem:
  • Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
  • ECB minions wants to hike interest rates, gradually drop stimulus bond buys:
  • S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data
  • Friday, 17 September 2021
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions debating when to start tapering off stimulus bond buys:
  • ECB minions thinking no rate hikes through 2023, upset at leak of inflation forecasts, then leak more inflation forecasts:
  • Wall Street Closes Rollercoaster Week Sharply Lower
  • With expectations for the future of U.S. interest rates often influencing investors, one resource for checking out recent trends you might find useful is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates database from the U.S. Treasury.


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