The S&P 500 Goes on 'Roller Coaster' Ride, But Remains Within Redzone

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) had what Reuters called a ‘rollercoaster’ week, but when all was said and done, stock prices still fell within the expected range.

Or rather, the range that would be expected if investors were mainly focusing on 2022-Q1 in setting current day stock prices. Or on 2021-Q4, since there’s not much difference between the expectations for this quarter and 2022-Q1 at this point of time.

As for the market’s rollercoaster week, Friday, 17 September 2021 was a quadruple witching day, with a slew of options and futures contracts expiring. That includes the dividend futures contract for 2021-Q3, which as far as the alternative futures chart is concerned, is over.

If you read the marking moving headlines of the week below carefully, you can see why 2021-Q4 or 2022-Q1 are points of interest for investors looking forward in the story considering the timing of when the Fed will start tapering off its pandemic stimulus bond buying program, which it identifies as likely to happen in either November (2021-Q4) or in December (2022-Q1), where the quarters are defined by dividend futures contract expiration dates.

Monday, 13 September 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• From zippers to glass, shortages of basic goods hobble U.S. economy
• U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations highest since 2013, NY Fed says
• Oil rises to six-week high as U.S. supply concerns dominate
• U.S. grain exports sink as Gulf terminals struggle to recover from Ida

Bigger inflation developing all over:

• Japan’s wholesale inflation hovers near 13-yr high as material costs rise
• Key gauge of euro zone inflation expectations at highest since mid-2015

BOJ minions thinking stimulus policies of previous boss were wrong:

• After the ‘bazooka’, Bank of Japan dismantles the work of its radical chief

S&P 500 snaps losing streak as tax hikes, inflation data loom

Tuesday, 14 September 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Tamer US August CPI bolsters Fed’s transitory inflation case
• Oil settles unchanged as latest storm spares U.S. energy sector
• Louisiana grain terminal reopens after Hurricane Ida as Nicholas rains arrive

Bigger trouble developing in Japan:

• Japan’s Q3 growth forecast more than halved on COVID-19 impact

Bigger inflation developing all over:

• India’s August WPI inflation quickens to 11.39%

U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes

Wednesday, 15 September 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Hurricane Ida, supply constraints slow U.S. factory production
• Record 60 cargo ships wait to unload at busiest U.S. port complex

Positive signs in Australia, Japan, Eurozone:

• Australian consumers cheered by reopening plans as vaccinations surge
• Japan’s machinery orders rebound in sign of capex recovery
• Euro zone production stronger than expected in July

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China’s house of cards: Evergrande threatens wider real estate market
• China’s cooling measures curb new home price growth, property investment
• China’s factories, retailers stumble on COVID-19 disruptions

ECB minions think Delta COVID is overrated and fear inflation hump, inflation hits multi-year high in Canada, UK:

• Markets may be overestimating Delta’s impact on growth – ECB’s Schnabel
• Analysis: ECB sees a new inflation ‘hump’ as prices surge
• Canada’s annual inflation rate in August hits highest in nearly two decades
• UK inflation posts record jump to hit 9-year peak in August

S&P 500, Dow gain on factory data, strong oil prices

Thursday, 16 September 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• U.S. business inventory accumulation slows in July
• U.S. retail sales surprise to upside in strong boost to economy
• Oil prices steady as U.S. storm threat wanes
• U.S. Gulf crude oil ramps up after hurricane losses -data

Fed minions have huge ethics problem:

• Fed’s Powell orders sweeping ethics review after officials’ trading prompts outcry

Bigger trouble developing in Japan:

• Japan cuts economic view on weaker production, spending due to COVID revival
• Japan’s hot exports growth cools as COVID-19 hits supply chains

ECB minions wants to hike interest rates, gradually drop stimulus bond buys:

• ECB’s Rehn warns governments to count on higher rates
• ECB’s exit from crisis measures will be “very gradual”: Rehn
• ECB’s Lane reveals in private meeting inflation target may be hit by 2025 – report

S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data

Friday, 17 September 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/oil-falls-as-storm-hit-u-s-supply-trickles-back-into-market-idUSKBN2GD04M

Fed minions debating when to start tapering off stimulus bond buys:

• November? December? Fed’s ‘taper’ timeline tied to volatile jobs data

ECB minions thinking no rate hikes through 2023, upset at leak of inflation forecasts, then leak more inflation forecasts:

• ECB’s De Cos is not foreseeing an interest rate hike in 2023
• ECB faces call to end private meetings after Lane leak
• Some in ECB think inflation forecasts too pessimistic -Makhlouf

Wall Street Closes Rollercoaster Week Sharply Lower

• “Monster reallocations” to stocks as U.S. tax threat recedes – BofA

With expectations for the future of U.S. interest rates often influencing investors, one resource for checking out recent trends you might find useful is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates database from the U.S. Treasury.