The return

Well, at least you’re all vaxed-up. Yesterday’s poll was live for twenty hours and received 3,121 responses. Of those, 90% report being fully vaccinated. However there were 238 souls who indicated they’ll refuse the jab. This is disappointing, as I was sure my constant belittling, copious insults and peckerheadedness had driven you away. Too bad. I shall try harder.

Now, what about WFH conclusions and the path ahead? Over half of you report working from home now, and most have not been given a return-to-the-cubicle date. It’s interesting a clear majority (63%) want to go back, despite the fact WFH is now considered to be a thing that won’t ever go away. And, predictably, almost two-thirds think remote workers should not be paid less. Then again, it’s also surprising 37% believe WFH needs to come with a pay cut.

Does this glimpse into the audience of a pathetic blog match the sentiment of the masses?

Nah. Not even close. StatsCan found 80% of WFHers never want to go back. This is probably because the income level, net worth and taste in social media among blog dogs is exponentially higher than those losers who, say, visit Parler, Tinder or the CBC comment section. Well, almost all of you.

Full results are below. Now go and buy some pants.

We told you a week or two ago the real estate market is sick, and fresh evidence just rolled in. Sales down. Inventory dried up. Prices even higher. There is not much that’s healthy about this picture since, combined with new demand-creating measures the federal Libs are about to usher in, values will go higher and affordability lower. Not what anyone wants. Except realtors. And Audi salesguys.

In Toronto September deals came in just over 9,000 – meaning there’s only a single month’s inventory of houses on the market. Sales were down 18% from last year due to slim pickings for buyers but the headline is this: an average property price of $1.136 million. That beats May’s high-water mark. The average for detacheds is $1.78 million in 6ix and $1.46 in the sticks. At these levels the average family is massively priced out of home ownership. It constitutes a political and monetary policy failure.

Listings have collapsed. The concern now is two-fold. First, the Trudeau Libs are about to raise the CMHC insurance ceiling by 25%, to $1.25 million – which means kiddos can buy a home for that amount with 20x leverage, backed by the hapless taxpayers. So, yes, we just baked in a way for prices to swell.

Second, the insane FHSA. A Bank of Mom deposit of $40,000 into an adult child’s new tax shelter will result in a big tax refund, untaxed asset growth, plus a tax-less withdrawal to buy real estate. How can this not jack demand? And prices?

Both these changes are coming in the Spring 2022 budget. Maybe even before, in the case of the CMHC change. It is policy insanity. Already YTD sales have jumped substantially in 2021 (by 42% in the GTA, for example) while inflation has soared, mortgage rates declined and incomes stayed swampy.

Oh, and did you see the Van numbers? Listings off by a third with average prices about equal to those in the GTA at $1.186 million. And in YVR, households are lower. Owning dirt far exceeds the common man’s grasp. Even worse in the Fraser Valley. The average prop is now $1.36 million. Up 30%, like Guelph, NOTL or Halifax.

“We saw new record prices being set, especially for detached properties and especially further out in the suburbs,” says the Vancouver real estate board boss. “But where’s the new listings?”

Simple answer. When owners cannot realistically move after forking over commission and HST, then buying again with big closing costs, land taxes and moving expenses, they don’t. Windfall profits are siphoned off immediately by a market gone mad, now being fed by out-of-touch CBs and feckless politicians. Unhealthy. And that means unsustainable. Nobody believes it, as you know. That’s the scary part.

Take this job and… remote it.

CLICK IMAGE BELOW TO SEE WFH SURVEY RESULTS (a new browser window will open, then click on the reduced image to view full-size)

About the picture: “I’ve been reading and enjoying your work going back as far as your newspaper columns of several decades ago,” writes Henry. “While visiting family in Edmonton we enjoyed a walk with their Lab, Ollie, on a perfect fall day at an off-leash park overlooking the North Saskatchewan River Valley. Ollie is friendly and enjoys socializing with other dogs in the park. Occasionally a younger dog may attempt to get into a tussle with him, but the wisdom of his thirteen years is evident in the way he calmly disregards any sort of provocation. Thank you for all the good advice.”