The S&P 500 Sets String of Seven New Record Highs

It was a fun week for S&P 500 (Index: SPX) investors. The index set new record highs on each trading day of the first week of November 2021, closing the week at 4,697.53.

Better still, the index has closed at record highs on its last 7 consecutive trading days!

A seven consecutive day winning streak isn’t as rare as you might think. Our S&P 500 streak tool indicates that the odds of that happening are just 1 in 352 over the index’ modern history. If it reaches eight consecutive days, that’s an event with 1 in 651 odds of happening.

Of course, the thing that makes the direction of stock prices random on a daily basis is the random onset of new information. Here’s our summary of the market-moving headlines of the trading week ending 5 November 2021.

Monday, 1 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Worsening shortages, high prices restrain U.S. manufacturing activity
• Construction spending unexpectedly falls in September
• Yellen sees some revival of U.S. labor force participation over time

Bigger trouble developing in Asia:

• China’s falling factory activity a sign of economic woes ahead
• S.Korea factory activity growth hits 13-month-low on supply crunch
• Asian factories shake off lockdown blues, now face supply headaches
• Japan’s auto sales slump clouds prospects of consumption rebound

Wall Street hits records as Tesla surges; focus on Fed meeting

Tuesday, 2 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Biden says he will make Fed nomination announcements ‘fairly quickly’

Fed minions discover dealing with jobs and inflation is full time job:

• The U.S. Federal Reserve’s take on greening the economy: Not our job
• Fed’s bond-buying timeline: roaring entry, boring exit?
• Wall Street banks step up preparations for Fed tapering volatility

Bigger inflation developing all over:

• S.Korea inflation hits near decade-high, raising rate hike bets
• Marketmind: Aussie cbank caves in, who’s next?

Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, China:

• Euro zone Oct factory growth hurt by supply woes, price pressures -PMI

• Supply bottlenecks dampen outlook for German manufacturers -PMI
• Supply chain issues slow French manufacturing growth in October – PMI

China urges families to keep stocks of daily necessities ahead of winter

ECB minions sell banks on keeping stimulus going, BOJ minions would really like 2% inflation:

• Euro zone banks starting to accept that low rates will stay – ECB
• Japanese policymakers reaffirm BOJ’s commitment to 2% inflation target

Wall Street mints record highs, helped by strong earnings; Fed up next

• Investors look to U.S. inflation measures, eye bond gyrations as taper looms

Wednesday, 3 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• U.S. service sector index hits record high in October; shortages worsening – ISM survey
• U.S. factory orders unexpectedly rise in September

• Supply chain disruption: is the worst over?

Fed minions say no rate hikes now, but will slow stimulus bond buys:

• FOMC: Time is here to taper bond buying, not to hike rates

• Fed sings the ‘transitory’ inflation refrain, unveils bond-buying ‘taper’
• Explainer-Federal Reserve’s taper: How does it work?

Fed’s Powell: Could reach maximum employment by mid-2022

• Fed’s Powell: Will take some time to assess nature of post-COVID job market

ECB minions either can’t or won’t fight inflation with rate hikes, Eurozone markets not happy:

• ECB is unlikely to raise interest rates in Q3 in 2022 or anytime soon afterwards, De Cos says
• ECB “very unlikely” to raise rates in 2022, Lagarde says
• Analysis-In rates fight with market, ECB is down but not out

Wall St record run rolls on after Fed unveils anticipated bond-buying ‘taper’

• U.S. stock buybacks head for record in third quarter
• Analysis-As Fed kicks off taper, some investors seek to dial down risk

Thursday, 4 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• U.S. labor costs surge in the third quarter; productivity falls sharply
• U.S. labor market tightening; wage costs accelerating
• Moderates in U.S. Congress balk at $1.75 trillion Biden social spending bill
• COVID-19 fading as dominant political issue as Americans focus on inflation, economy: Poll

Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, Canada:

• Euro zone business growth slipped to six-month low in Oct as price pressures soared
• Canada’s exports drop as supply chain woes drag auto sector

Bigger inflation developing all over:

• Supply bottlenecks, energy price jump slow down German services -PMI
• World food prices hit new 10-year high in October -FAO
• Euro zone producer prices make record jump in September – Eurostat

BOJ, BOE minions to keep stimulus going; ECB minion wonders if ECB should pay attention to inflation:

• BOJ Kuroda signals no mood to rush stimulus exit even as Fed tapers asset buying
• Bank of England confounds markets, keeps rates on hold
• ECB’s aware of inflation fears; sees potential threat to independence -Schnabel

S&P 500, Nasdaq extend record streaks, with boost from chip, growth shares

Friday, 5 November 2021

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil gains as supply concerns loom after OPEC+ output plan
• Strong U.S. payrolls brighten economic outlook; millions still missing from workforce

• US October payrolls surge back as virus impact fades

Fed minion figures out U.S. businesses are starving for labor:

• Fed’s George: no question we are in a tight labor market

Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:

• Euro zone retail sales record surprise fall on weak Germany

Bigger inflation developing all over:

• Mexico’s inflation seen at highest level in four years in October – Reuters poll

ECB minions betting central bank’s money on inflation going away, one minion notices they’re not looking in the right places:

• ECB policymakers push back on rate hike bets, see inflation falling
• Euro zone housing cost may be adding more to inflation than thought: Holzmann

Wall St books records, weekly gains on strong jobs report, Pfizer COVID-19 pill cheer

We haven’t featured it in a while, but it will become much more relevant in 2022. Here’s the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which is currently shows investors are giving greater-than-50% odds the Fed will start hiking short term U.S. interest rates in September 2022.