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Is it possible that the world is approaching end times?

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I frequently write that the world economy is, in physics terms, a dissipative structure that is powered by energy. It can grow for a time, but eventually it reaches limits of many kinds. Ultimately, it can be expected to stop growing and collapse.

It seems to me that the world economy is showing signs that it has reached a turning point. Economic growth stopped in 2020 and is having trouble restarting in 2021. Fossil fuel energy of all types (oil, coal and natural gas) is in short supply, relative to the world’s huge population. Ultimately, this inadequate energy supply can be expected to pull the world economy toward collapse.

The world economy doesn’t behave the way most people would expect. Standard modeling approaches miss the point that economies require adequate supplies of energy products of the right kinds, provided at the right times of day and year, if they are to keep from collapsing. Shortages are not necessarily marked by high prices; prices that are too low for producers will bring down the energy supply quickly. A collapse may occur due to inadequate demand; in fact, such a scenario is described in Revelation 18.

As strange as it may seem, we may be approaching what some of us would think of as end times, if our economy collapses for lack of cheap-to-produce energy supplies. In this post, I will try to explain what is happening.

[1] In some ways, the self-organizing economy is like a child’s building toy that, with the use of human energy, can be built up to higher and higher levels.


Figure 3. World per capita energy consumption, with the 1950-1980 period of rapid growth highlighted. World Energy Consumption by Source, based on Vaclav Smil’s estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent years, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison.

The world economy can be expected to run into a major problem once supplemental energy consumption per capita starts falling because then human labor is necessarily less leveraged by fewer machines, such as trucks and airplanes. In total, fewer goods and services can be produced.

If energy supply is inadequate, businesses often find it advantageous to substitute computers or other machines for some work previously done by low paid workers. While these machines use a little energy in their operation, they do not need food, housing or transportation the way human workers do. With fewer actual workers, demand for finished goods and services tends to fall, pushing commodity prices, including those for fossil fuels, down. This further adds to the low-price problem.

It is the lack of jobs that pay well that tends to hold down commodity prices below the prices producers require. Ultimately, it is the lack of sufficient jobs that pay well that tends to bring the whole economy down. Most researchers have missed this important point.

[4] In the period leading up to collapse, wages fail to rise with the cost of required services. This leads to increasingly unhappy workers. Healthcare costs and college costs are especially problematic, because their costs have been rising faster than costs in general.

Figure 4. Illustrates the issue that seems to be occurring:


Figure 9. World per capita energy supply by type of fuel, based on BP 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy data.

Several years before 2020, it should have been clear that the world economy was doing very poorly based on the continued need for very low interest rates (Figure 7) and Quantitative Easing. China, in particular, was doing poorly, as indicated by its low sales of automobiles (Figure 5). Of course, China doesn’t broadcast its problems to the rest of the world, so few people were aware of this issue.

China had been able to boost the world’s per capita supply of inexpensive-to-produce energy by ramping up its coal production after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. (Note the world ramp up in coal, starting after 2001, on Figure 9). Unfortunately, because of depletion, China’s coal production since 2013 has been close to flat. Furthermore, China had had a big recycling business, but discontinued it effective January 1, 2018. Discontinuation of this program was necessary because oil prices had fallen in 2014 and had never recovered to their former level. With low oil prices, most recycling in China made no sense economically. The loss of jobs from recycling and cutbacks in coal operations no doubt contributed to the declining sale of vehicles in China.

In the years before 2020, another big issue was that the wages of many workers were not keeping up with the rising cost of living. Figure 4 illustrates this issue for the US. The problem was especially acute for lower wage workers. During this period, the prices of many commodities were too low for producers. This led to layoffs and low wages for workers.

In early 2020, the world became aware of a new coronavirus that had been identified in China. The response to this new illness was very strange, compared to how previous pandemics had been handled. The response looked a great deal like intentionally scaring people (especially older people) into staying at home. If this were done, much less oil could be used. Natural gas and coal consumption could be reduced, as well.

This story is perhaps not so strange if we look at it in context. On January 8, 2020, I wrote that we should be expecting recession and low oil prices in 2020. I included this oil price chart.


Figure 10. Inflation adjusted weekly average Brent Oil price, based on EIA oil spot prices and US CPI-urban inflation.

On January 29, I wrote, It is easy to overreact to a coronavirus. In this article, I pointed out that the economy already seemed to be headed in the direction of recession. Shutdowns would only make the problem worse.

Politicians choosing to shut down their economies in early 2020 were likely not aware that the real underlying problem within their economy was inadequate availability of inexpensive-to-produce energy. They were aware that China had decided to shut down part of its economy, so perhaps there might be some usefulness to such an action. Local leaders outside of China knew that their own factories were underutilized. If their own factories could be shut down temporarily, perhaps they could operate at closer to capacity, once they reopened.

Furthermore, a shutdown would give an excuse to keep workers protesting low wages inside. After the shutdown, there would be an excuse to raise the debt level, perhaps keeping the financial part of the economy going for a while longer. So, a shutdown would have many benefits, apart from any potential benefit from (sort of) containing the virus.

It became apparent as time went on that the vaccine story for COVID-19 was playing multiple roles, as well. The healthcare industry was becoming very large in the US. In fact, the size of the healthcare industry was beginning to interfere with the economy as a whole (Figure 4). Furthermore, manufacturers of medicines and vaccines were having problems with diminishing returns because the big, important drug finds had been discovered years ago. It was becoming difficult to profitably fund all of the research needed for new drugs.

Behind the scenes, the vaccine industry had been working for years on creating new viruses and preparing vaccines for these same viruses. The theory was that the same approaches that delivered vaccines might be helpful in treating diseases of various kinds. Vaccines might also be helpful in responding to bioweapon attacks. If drug manufacturers could market a blockbuster vaccine, the manufacturers, as well as the individuals holding the vaccine patents, could become rich.

The US was not alone in the research with respect to viruses and vaccines for these viruses. Many major countries, including Canada, France, Italy, Australia and China had funded this research, partly through their budgets for health research and partly through military budgets. There was virtually no chance that anyone would figure out the source of any problematic virus because so many major countries had had a part in funding this research. If citizens could be convinced that the virus was extremely dangerous and mandate the use of vaccines, the vaccine industry could greatly profit from vaccine sales. The vaccine could be created and marketed quickly because all of the research (but not enough testing) had been performed earlier.

A great deal of planning had been done before the pandemic appeared, based to a significant extent upon what outcome vaccine makers would prefer. Johns Hopkins University completed a SPARS Pandemic Scenario in October 2017, rehearsing responses to a pandemic. A training exercise called Event 201 was held on October 18, 2019, for the purpose of training high level government officials and news writers what their responses should be.

The sponsors of Event 201 were “The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.” The latter two organizations are representatives of the very wealthy individuals and very large corporations. The primary interest of these organizations is enriching those who are already wealthy. The World Economic Forum is known for proclaiming, “You’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy.”

As time went on, it became very clear that the true nature of the COVID-19 epidemic was being hidden from citizens. It was, and is, not a terribly dangerous illness if it is treated properly with any number of inexpensive medications including aspirin, ivermectin, antihistamine and steroids. In fact, the severity of the disease could also be lessened by taking vitamin D in advance. There really was not a great deal of point to the vaccines, except to enrich the vaccine manufacturers and those who would benefit from the sale of the vaccines, including Anthony Fauci and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

It also became clear that the vaccines don’t really do what a person might expect a vaccine to do. They do tend to stop severe illness, but taking vitamin D in advance would provide pretty much the same benefit. They don’t stop COVID-19 from circulating because vaccinated people can still catch COVID-19. The vaccines seem to have any number of side effects, including raising the risk of heart attacks.

The historical period most similar to the current period, in terms of shortage of energy supply, is that between World War I and World War II. At that time, the Jews were persecuted. Now, there is an attempt to divide the world into Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, with the Unvaccinated persecuted. When the economy cannot produce enough goods and services for all members of the economy, the economy seems to divide into almost warring parts.

We are basically trying to deal with an energy scenario that looks a lot like Figure 8, and the self-organizing economy comes up with very strange solutions. If people can convince themselves that it is OK to ostracize the unvaccinated, then maybe the move down the collapse will go more smoothly. For example, the military can be cut back in size by dismissing the unvaccinated, without admitting that with current resources, there is a need to reduce the size of the military.

Europe is the part of the world where the push for vaccinations is now highest. It is also in terrible shape with respect to energy supply. By ostracizing the unvaccinated, European countries can attempt to cut back their economies to the size that their energy supply will support, without admitting the real problem.

[10] The world economy is increasingly acting like economies that have collapsed in the past. In fact, there seems to be a connection with some of the strange statements from the book of Revelation.

We are living in a world now in which even if there are temporary price spikes, there is little chance that fossil fuel providers will ramp up their production. In order to ramp up supplies, they would need to start several years in advance, preparing new fields. Oil, coal and gas prices have stayed so low, for so long, that there is no belief that prices can rise to a high enough level and stay there, as the fuels are extracted. Thus, the fossil fuel will stay in the ground.

At the same time, it is becoming increasingly clear that renewables cannot be depended upon. In fact, low generation of electricity by wind turbines is part of the reason Europe is having to import the large quantity of natural gas and coal supplies it now requires. There is concern that rolling blackouts may be necessary during the winter in Europe, if not this year, sometime in the next few years.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the future energy scenario will look something like Figure 8, causing world population to fall dramatically within the next thirty years. This is the kind of situation most of us would associate with collapse. I think of it as being equivalent to end times, since our modern civilization will be disappearing. It is possible that there will be a remnant of people left, but they will be living a much simpler life, without fossil fuels or modern renewables.

There are several parts to what is happening that remind me of Old Testament writings in general, and of the book of Revelation (from the New Testament), in particular.

First, the willingness of the ultra-rich to look out for themselves and keep what look like perfectly good, cheap cures for COVID-19 from the world population seems to be precisely the kind of despicable behavior that Old Testament prophets despised. For example, in Amos 5:21-24, Amos tells the Jews that God despises their prior behavior. In verse 24 (NIV), he says, “But let justice roll on like a river, righteousness like a never-failing stream!”

As I noted in the introduction, Revelation 18 talks about lack of demand being an issue in the collapse of Babylon, and presumably in any future collapse that occurs. Revelation 18:11-13 reads:

11 The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her because no one buys their cargoes anymore— 12 cargoes of gold, silver, precious stones and pearls; fine linen, purple, silk and scarlet cloth; every sort of citron wood, and articles of every kind made of ivory, costly wood, bronze, iron and marble;13 cargoes of cinnamon and spice, of incense, myrrh and frankincense, of wine and olive oil, of fine flour and wheat; cattle and sheep; horses and carriages; and human beings sold as slaves.

The need for vaccine passports in some countries reminds a person of Revelation 13:17, “they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of its name.” In fact, people in Sweden are getting microchip implants after its latest COVID passport mandate.

Some people believe that Revelation 12 describes the Antichrist; that is, the polar opposite of Christ. Before the world comes to an end, Revelation 12 seems to predict a great fight against this Antichrist, which Christ wins. I could imagine Anthony Fauci being the Antichrist.

We are not used to living in a world where very little that is published by the Mainstream Media makes sense. But when we live in a time where no one wants to hear what is true, the system changes in a bizarre way, so that a great deal that is published is false.

It is disturbing to think that we may be living near the end of the world economy, but there is an upside to this situation. We have had the opportunity to live at a time with more conveniences than any other civilization. We can appreciate the many conveniences we have.

We also have the opportunity to decide how we want to live the rest of our lives. We have been led for many years down the path of believing that economic growth will last forever; all we need to do is have faith in the government and our educational institutions. If we figure out that this really isn’t the path to follow, we can change course now. If we want to choose a more spiritual approach, this is a choice we can still make.


Source: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/12/03/is-it-possible-that-the-world-is-approaching-end-times/


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    • Slimey

      You forget COMMIES ruin everything. The ones here in our government and the ones in China. :roll:

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