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The labor force in the USA: participation of older people rising – younger on the fall

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The labor force participation rate, LFPR, is on a long-term decline in the USA. Figure 1 demonstrates that the bottom value of approximately 58% will be reached around 2030. In 2021, the LFPR was at 61.7%. The red curve is the time inverted original (black) curve. For the periodic evolution, such an inversion can predict the future. We assumed the periodicity fifteen years ago and this prediction is still working accurately. 

At the same time, one can split the overall decline into the age-dependent groups as Figure 2 shows. The most vulnerable fractions of the population are younger people, especially the youngest (16-17). The older groups (55-59 and 60-64)  partially compensate for the drop in the younger groups and their LFPR has been growing since 2000, i.e. from the start of the long-term decline (Figure 1). The mid-age groups are not suffering any big changes in the LFPR.  

Figure 1.
Figure 2.


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