(Left: The traitor Zelensky, who brought Putin’s invasion on the Ukrainians with his insane stance, serving only Washington DC)
Either a terrible crash, or a humongous bailout is around the corner. Liquidity in the markets is lower than it was in March 2020, when the S&P tanked 30%.
The Petrodollar is in its death throes, the SWIFT sanctions of Russia will hurt the Dollar more than the Russian Empire, and it’s looking like the current Ukraine Crisis has been created to sell the coming crash, just as the Lockdown and ‘covid’ served primarily to sell the crash cum bailout and money printing in March 2020.
Have a look at this graph, it shows the amount of liquidity (meaning simply the amount of money going around) in the markets. See the two crunches, both in March 2020, and now. It’s actually even worse now.
Why is it important? Because in March 2020, while we got locked up, they gave the Bank the biggest bailout ever, and unleashed money printing on a scale we haven’t seen since 2008.
The blue trend shows the liquidity in the market, the yellow one the S&P index. You can open up the pic in another tab to get a better view. The red circles indicate previous crashes in liquidity, and simultaneous crashes of the the S&P index. The third circle is March 2020.
What this graph is suggesting, is that we are facing a major crash. In the short term.
And this is confirmed by the trend of financial markets since the beginning of this year: the S&P is down over 10%, and the NASDAQ even 16%. Also, it was reported the other day, that the Government expects 0% economic growth over Q1, meaning we are already facing recession. Another sobering indicator is that car sales are expected to implode.
The Fed is now faced with a dire dilemma: either more money printing (inflation), to solve the liquidity crisis, and an insane melt up on the markets, and even much higher consumer prices, or a crash as we had in March 2020. A crash that will be even much worse, because it will also destroy all the gains of the last two years. Meaning it could go as far down as 50%. And likely even more in the years ahead.
All endless blathering by the talking heads about ‘fundamentals’, when rationalizing their mindless speculation, is mostly childish nonsense: markets go up when money grows, and they come down when it doesn’t. Raise the money supply with a factor two, and prices will double. It’s as simple as that.
We can clearly see liquidity tanking, with directly corresponding results in ‘the markets’.
And the problem is that the Fed can’t really continue or escalate its QE. Not without exploding prices even further. Inflation is already the highest in forty years.
Still, there are rumors that they will. It’s an unenviable choice: either print money, and make living unaffordable for the masses, and creating unbelievable windfalls for the idle, speculative class, or no money printing, leading to deflationary catastrophe and a terrible depression.
Personally, my money is ultimately on deflation, for two simple reasons: in the first place, inflation is good for debtors and bad for creditors. A strong inflation would negate the value of the entire debt. And it’s the debt by which the Bankers have us by the balls. It could be that they would allow a little more inflation, if only to sell a hard turn to deflation later on, but ultimately, they want deflation.
Secondly: creating the boom and bust cycle is, besides Usury, the core business of the Fed and the Banking Cartel. They have blown this massive debt bubble over fifty years, and they have plans with it. They’re not going to let us off the hook.
So even when they decide on a last round of QE to stave off the disaster for now, at some point they will let it happen.
Russia invades the Ukraine
As said, the above graph was published only two days before the Russians invaded the Ukraine.
Considering the fact that the Lockdown was a direct result of low liquidity and the ‘need’ to bail out the Bank, and the real economy, with massive money printing and bail outs, we must assume that there is a very direct link between the timing of the Russian invasion (and especially America’s ridiculous, ultra aggressive, non-negotiating stance that provoked it), and the liquidity scarcity in the System this time around too.
The invasion has resulted in a propaganda campaign that surely is very reminiscent of the insane media onslaught that we saw with ‘covid’. The intensity, the absurd lies, fake videos, Ukrainian flags getting projected on major buildings all over the West, prerecorded nonsense videos by Zelensky, etc.
Also, the fierce divide: those who still have difficulty letting go of these hip slave masks are now calling everybody calling for restraint and actual understanding of Putin’s actions ‘traitors’. The fault lines are the same. Basically: for or against the Government. Lies vs. Truth. Blue vs. Red.
Sanctions and the Petrodollar
Immediately after the invasion, the West implemented strong sanctions on Russia, which led to a collapse of Russian markets, down 50%, and the Rubble, down 30%. The Bank of Russia raised rates to 20%. They can still do this, because they’re not so bound by debt, especially the Government.
Most importantly, the US has been trying to kick Russia off of SWIFT. And they have partly succeeded. SWIFT is basically a messaging board, where financial actors communicate concerning payment instructions. Without access to SWIFT, Russia is cut off from the Western Banking System.
In the short term, kicking Russia off of SWIFT will hurt them, but the far more important implication is that the whole world can now see what leverage control of SWIFT provides the West with. Without a doubt, the Russians have long planned their exit strategy, and it is now transpiring that China has a payment system of its own, which they could open up for the Russians.
Things will definitely be hard in Russia at the moment, but the fact of the matter is, that all this is completely within the scope of Putin’s calculations. They have prepared for this for years.
In chess, there is the adage that ‘the threat is stronger than its execution’. And this looks true in this case too: denying SWIFT to the Russians is going to backfire on the US in a major way. It will most certainly escalate dedollarisation.
The Petrodollar was already dying, there was already no way it was going to maintain its supremacy with the unsustainable monetary looseness of the last two years. Major Eurasian powers, Iran, Turkey, Russia, China, Pakistan, even India, had for a long time already been faced with the imperative to become less dependent on the Dollar.
And then there is also the famous fact, that the WEF held an exercise concerning ‘cyber attacks on the financial system‘. One of the key results of this war game, was that Russia would leave SWIFT and install their own Central Bank Digital Currency.
Implying that the Powers that Be had already been planning for this event. Whether it’s sanctions or a ‘cyber attack’ causing Russia to leave SWIFT is ultimately immaterial.
The Petrodollar was dying anyway, so they’re just controlling the demolition either way.
The two main geopolitical trends are the exploding debt bubble, and the closely associated end of US hegemony and their Petrodollar. This is a debt crisis. The debt crisis of an era. Not just another Stock Exchange bubble popping.
The Lockdown was aimed against popular resistance against the massive bailout, necessary to prevent an immediate debt crisis, and there can be no doubt that the current drying up liquidity and the Ukraine crisis are not happening simultaneously ‘by accident’ either.
The last two years have seen inflation, and with it, ‘good times’. But that injection has lost its effect by now, and markets are crashing. The Fed can’t really start printing again, not without creating hyper inflation, which in turn will lead to a crisis on the bond market, which they most certainly can’t afford.
Maybe there will be a last round of money printing, maybe not, but either way, the financial system is teetering on the brink of collapse, be it inflationary or deflationary.
What is coming is not ‘a recession’, not ‘a depression’, but the Greatest Depression.
A broader discussion of the key points above is here:
Anthony Migchels is an interest free currency activist and founder of the Gelre, the first regional currency of the Netherlands. His articles can be found at http://realcurrencies.wordpress.com. Contact him at [email protected]
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