The divide

Americans vote every two years, like clockwork. We’re random. More like twice a decade. American citizens can also cast separate federal ballots for their Congress rep, their senator and their president. We get one. So you might love the guy who’s your MP but think he works for a dork of a leader. Too bad. One choice.

This makes US politics volatile, less predictable and ultimately far more democratic. It’s a messy system. Usually it works. But these days there is doubt, thanks to a deep polarization of views, a larger-than-life political operative and the blessing/curse of social media.

So tomorrow is voting day for lots of key positions but not that of president. Republicans look ripe to win and Democrats to lose control of the Senate. Maybe the House, too. Hard to know but usually midterm elections are tough on the party of the guy in the White House.

Here are the latest odds:

American democracy is an awesome thing. But never before has it been tested by a former president who tells people the system cannot be trusted, that the guy he lost to is illegitimate, and who tried to prevent the peaceful transition of power. It’s what you’d expect to read about in a banana republic. Not Washington. But he got away with it (so far) and Trump is now a few days from launching another presidential bid.

The amazing part is that tens of millions of voters – including seven in ten Republicans – believe the 2020 election was rigged. There’s no evidence of that. The current president had a margin of eight million ballots. But this is the age of conspiracy, and a ‘stolen election’ is the Big Lie that refuses to die.

In fact there are 300 candidates running for office federally and at the state level tomorrow who have bought into the Trump allegation. Lots of them will win. Meanwhile the Democrats drift further to the left, thanks to people like AOC and Bernie Saunders, while the Republicans trend right towards Trump.

“We’re bracing for blood in the streets down here,” Brian told me on the weekend. He and Liz are retired Canadians (North Van) with a winter house in Arizona. They just arrived a week ago and Brian says he has never in 13 years seen such visible anger and acrimony. “God knows what will happen after Tuesday night, but we are seriously talking, Liz and I, about this maybe being too uncomfortable a place to come to again.”

So what will happen?

Beats me. But riots are unlikely, except on Twitter.

More likely is that the Trumpers take control of the House of Representatives and maybe the Senate. This creates a split government with Congress most often at odds with the White House and the President’s agenda. Nothing much changes in terms of inflation outlook, central bank monetary policy, an interest rate pivot or GDP growth. What does change is the pace of federal spending which will come through gridlock, maybe another debt ceiling shutdown and political theatrics as the next presidential cycle takes off (and the guy in the red ball cap tries for that comeback).

Stocks like gridlock. Major policy issues and the oversized spending that Biden seems to favour will be thwarted. There are more checks and balances, and an environment which is seen as more favourable for equities. In fact, history bears that out.

The bigger worry, of course, is 2024.

Biden will be 80 before long. By the time of the next election, Trump will be 78. Is it logical to think either will be up to a job that never sleeps? Who’s in the wings? Kamala, a divisive figure? DeSantis the migrant-buser? Would Bernie screw everything up again? Will Rubio the political weather-vane run? Or lefty beach boy Gavin Newsom?

And how secure is a democracy where tens of millions of people say they don’t trust the system? When the defeated president encouraged an insurrection? Where a dude with a zip ties and hammer hunted the Speaker, then whacked her husband? Where Qanon or Alex Jones or Joe Rogan are embraced?

It matters. Without the US our economy might be the size of Ecuador’s and if the American military were not next door, we could be speaking Mandarin. Or just imagine if our own two major political parties started drifting further and further into extremes, with the Libs recklessly spending on special interest groups, doing a deal with socialists and driving us into debt while the Cons tried to politicize the central bank while supported anti-vaxers who illegally occupied our capital city?

How troubling would that be?

About the picture: “Photo snapped this week by acquaintance,” writes Leslie, “whose critter collection includes two kittens and three dogs. These two, Dakota and Bandit, exemplify the secret formula: peace in unity.”