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The S&P 500 Drifts Lower with Investors Focused on Fed's Upcoming Actions

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The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) mostly drifted sideways to lower during the third trading week of November 2022. That’s mainly because nothing happened to change the time horizon of investors, who maintained their forward-looking focus on the current quarter of 2022-Q4.

At least, that’s how we’re reading the latest update to the alternative futures chart.

Alternative Futures - S&P 500 - 2022Q4 - Standard Model (m=+2.0 from 13 September 2022) - Snapshot on 18 Nov 2022

We think the drifting lower part of the S&P 500′s movement is related to dissipating noise from the previous week. Otherwise, the news of the week indicates what the Fed will be doing with interest rates, and more importantly, what they say they’re going to be doing with interest rates in 2023 at its upcoming December 2022 meetings is holding investor attention on 2022-Q4.

Here are the market moving headlines from the trading week ending on Friday, 18 November 2022.

Monday, 14 November 2022
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions dialing back rate hikes, claim they’re serious about slowing inflation:
  • Bigger stimulus developing in China:
  • BOJ minions can’t stop, won’t stop never-ending stimulus:
  • Eurozone economy better than expected back in September:
  • ECB minions say they’re okay with smaller rate hikes:
  • Wall Street ends lower as investors gauge Fed’s policy path
  • Tuesday, 15 November 2022
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions focusing on fighting inflation they haven’t yet dented, but thinking about the perfect time to pause rate hikes and the risk to financial system from crypto fails:
  • Bigger trouble developing in China, Japan, Eurozone:
  • Bigger stimulus developing in Eurozone:
  • Central bankers falling into line with Fed’s rate hike actions and plans:
  • Philippine central bank to raise rates by 75 bps- Reuters poll
  • India’s cenbank likely to go for smaller rate hikes as inflation eases -analysts
  • ECB minions thinking about keeping rate hikes going:
  • Wall Street gains on inflation data, but rocky on geopolitics
  • Wednesday, 16 November 2022
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions giving up on soft landing for U.S. economy from its rate hikes, keep focus on what they’ll do in December, claim they can’t deliver financial stability:
  • Fed’s Williams says monetary policy not best tool for financial stability
  • Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
  • Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • ECB minions claim inflation is top priority, starting to worry about hiking rates, will be “prudent” in unloading holdings of EU government debt and that green policies will eliminate inflation:
  • Wall Street ends down after Target outlook, Micron supply cut
  • Thursday, 17 November 2022
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions signal more rate hikes coming, Fed chief to set size of rate hikes:
  • Fed’s Jefferson says low inflation key to U.S. prosperity
  • Fed’s Kashkari: not stopping rate hikes until inflation peaks
  • Bigger trouble developing in China, Eurozone:
  • BOJ minions determined to keep never-ending stimulus alive, or not:
  • Wall Street drops as hawkish Fed official comments weigh
  • Friday, 18 November 2022
    • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions keep investor focus on what they’s do and say at December 2022 meeting, worry about bank liquidity:
  • BOJ minions okay with inflation, stalling for time to keep never-ending stimulus alive:
  • ECB minions taking money out of Eurozone economy, say they’ll hike rates decisively, but could slow their pace and drag them out:
  • S&P 500 ends higher, led by defensive shares
  • The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continues to project a half point rate hike on tap for 14 December (2022-Q4). But in 2023-Q1, the FedWatch tool now projects a half point rate hike in February and a quarter point rate hike in March (2023-Q1), with the Federal Funds Rate reaching a peak target range of 5.00-5.25%. Looking further forward, the FedWatch tool still anticipates two quarter point rate cuts in 2023-Q4 (November and December) as the Fed is forced to go into reverse after developing recessionary conditions take hold in the U.S. economy.

    The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool‘s projection for real GDP growth in 2022-Q4 rose to +4.2% from last week’s +4.0% estimate. There continues to be a big gap between its forecast and the so-called “Blue Chip consensus” that continues to predict near zero growth in 2022-Q4.

    With the Thanksgiving holiday later this week, we’re not expecting much to happen with stock prices. As such, we’re switching the rest of our week’s analysis over to resume our annual Thanksgiving celebration, where we’ll pick up with the next regular edition of the S&P 500 chaos series on Monday, 28 November 2022.


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