A significant drop in the annual CPI inflation rate is expected in the USA
The annual CPI inflation rate is defined by the total change in the Consumer Price Index and the CPI value one year ago. With growing CPI, a constant annual change in the CPI produces decreasing inflation rate due to the increasing denominator. The jump in the CPI ( see Figure 1) from August 2021 to May 2022 produced a dramatic surge in the inflation rate (Figure 2). The inflation increase in the first quarter of 2021 was related to the drop in the CPI and the corresponding fall in the inflation rate denominator in the first quarter of 2021.
Figure 4 presents the difference in the CPI annualized inflation rates: current and 12 months ago. This difference indicates the trend in the CPI inflation evolution. The negative values mean that the CPI inflation falls as was observed between July and October 2022. The estimate for November 2022 will be released by the BLS on Dec 13. The trend in Figure 4 indicates that the CPI inflation will drop below 7% and this means that the FOMC will retain the overnight rate rather than increase it by 0.75 percentage points. The trend will extend into 2023 as all printed money is fully accommodated by the CPI and there is no pressure left to inflate the babble. In 2023, deflation is coming as the Personal Income falls below its long-term average.
Source: http://mechonomic.blogspot.com/2022/12/a-significant-drop-in-annual-cpi.html
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