A couple of quick observations on this past week’s data.
First, the big contraction in corporate credit spreads and the rise in industrial metals. Ergo, Mr. Market signaling no recession.
Second the meltdown in Turkey’s currency and bond market. Stocks were up big as an inflation hedge, the same reason Argentina’s stock market nominal returns are high.
The meltdown in Turkey’s currency is dramatic and scary. It compels the nation’s new economic managers to embark on a wholesale shift in policy. One thing the lira’s swoon shouldn’t be is a surprise: Loose monetary settings and years of flawed prescriptions for scandalously high inflation have been storing up big problems. A comprehensive solution will take time. – Bloomberg
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