Does The Day Of Month Affect S&P Returns?
Yes. And it’s significant and intuitive.
The table analyzes daily returns for the S&P500 since 1950 and illustrates the first of the month has returned on average 17.7 bps. That is 14 bps more than the daily average of 3.5 bps. Day one is followed closely by the second day of the month.
Explanation? Our priors are that it results from money flowing into stocks at the beginning of the month, and probably more so if we controlled for quarterly data. Captain Obvious.
Upshot? Don’t be short stocks on average at the beginning of the month.
Source: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2023/07/31/does-the-day-of-month-affect-sp-returns/
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