- Will the war in Ukraine end?
- Will Oil average over $100 a barrel?
- Will Elon Musk’s fabled moon trip happen?
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried get Jail time?
- Will the UK be in recession still in Q4 2024?
- tiebreak – a sport related prediction.
Answers: No; No; No; Not yet (guilty on 7 counts, sentencing to follow); 2024???
Compo results: well, taken literally the UK recession qn was something of a boobytrap but everyone interpreted it as a Manifest Error. (And given CU’s proclivities vis-à-vis spelling, that seems fair.) Taking it to have meant 4Q 23, the answer is … we don’t know yet, the data are not yet ratified. It therefore means that, as of 1 Jan, there is an unusual “pending draw” between Anomalous Cowshed and, errr, myself. We both got the first 3 answers right and put “yes but not this year” for SB-F’s gaol-time and we both had a correct sport prediction. But I dodged the recession question altogether, so later this year there’s the possibility for Mr Cowshed to be the outright winner.
There’s another subtlety: if PushingtheBoundaries and Cowshed are ultimately proven right about the recession, Cowshed still wins because PtB’s tiebreak answer was wrong. But he’d push me back into third place.
Final complication: there remains a logical possibility that SB-F doesn’t get gaol time when sentenced next later this year. Given what happens to official scapegoats in US financial cases, he can only really get off if Trump is elected and pardons him. But he’ll have served time prior to Jan ’25 – so, rather than have yet another “pending” angle, I’m ruling that a “No” answer to the SB-F qn is wrong.
Other answers of interest? Several of you cynically reckoned SB-F would get off. (Surely, he is the Scapegoat from Central Casting?) There were two opposing sporting tie-break predictions on the Ashes: Sobers – great cricketing tag, that – reckoned Oz to call time on Baz/Ben Ball. Well, it certainly looked that way early on, didn’t it? But not by the end. And PushingtheBoundaries – another great cricketing moniker! – reckoned England to win. And towards the end of voting there was a sudden rush of “> $100/Bbl” for the average oil price. I couldn’t decide whether those punters were trying to inject an element of contrarian thinking into the proceeding (- hope you didn’t follow that up in the markets!)
Will be soliciting your 2024 predictions in a day or so.
ND
Source:
http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2024/01/2023-predictions-results.html
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