The changeling

Twenty-two years ago, I was addicted.

Gently throbbing in my pocket was the narcotic of choice – a new thing called Blackberry. It was hard to believe a cell phone could actually be connected to the Internet. Emails. Damn. Suddenly it was as indispensable as underwear. No, more critical. No wonder we called them Crackberries.

Now everybody has a smart device making the Blackberry look like a tin can with a string. The web has democratized and forever changed society, the nature of world, innovation and communication. We killed newspapers and magazines. We let 13-year-olds become millionaires on TikTok. We replaced department stores with Amazon and its clones. Now we’re crushing television and radio stations and local retailers while social media turns political movements into cults. This morning the CRA sent me an email telling me to log into my portal for a message. No more lettermail. Last month my car, in winter storage, send me an email complaining its battery was low.

Since I unboxed my first Blackberry, everything has changed. And now, apparently, we know that was just the start. The next casualty may well be your job and social identity. Thanks to AI.

Wednesday evening Nvidia released its latest financial stats. It was a come-to-Jesus moment. The chip-maker is wildly profitable and its products in excess demand. Annual revenues surged 265% year/year to $22 billion. Sales in the current three-month period will probably be $24 billion. That’s $267 million per day, including weekends and holidays.

The company’s stock surged on opening this morning by 13%, adding $250 billion to Nvidia’s capitalization. The company (and AI) have been instrumental in pushing the S&P 500 well above the 5,000 mark – a new all-time high – and is being credited with fuelling a global equity romp, despite Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, Zelensky and Xi. Just look at Japan. Despite that country’s economy languishing in its long-term funk, the market just surpassed its 1989 high.

Nvidia helps fuel a global equity romp

In the US artificial intelligence s already goosing productivity with almost three-quarters of major companies employing some form of it. Across the entire planet many believe AI will be as powerful and transformational as the smartphone was in forever connecting billions of people and putting the sum of human knowledge at their fingertips (along with Pornhub, Reddit and Truth Social).

Little more than a year ago ChatGPT stunned everyone with its capabilities. (This blog asked it to write an article, a sonnet and a rock ballad about the US debt ceiling crisis. It did.) Now that’s old, routine, stale – relegated to students cheating on essays and real estate agents ordering listings to be written. Now OpenAI Sora (and others) can create flawless, high-quality video from a mere text description. A European company provides an AI-guided robot that can lay bricks are replace expensive labourers who want silly things like pensions, decent incomes and time off.

In fact, look at the forecast below of how many jobs are about to be vaporized by AI productivity, from transportation to real estate and manufacturing, media and (gulp) financial services. And bloggers.

How many jobs will AI eat? And where?

Source: Bain & Company. Click to enlarge.

We’re already seeing deep fakes everywhere. The current US presidential selection process has featured robo calls made by Joe Biden – his voice generated by AI. By November those calls will be interactive, so ‘Biden’ or ‘Trump’ (or ‘Haley’) can have an extended conversation with individual voters. Meanwhile deep fake vids of Elon Musk, Stephen Harper or Peter Mansbridge pushing crypto apps are proliferating. One blog reader tells me her 93-year-old father was completely conned.

Besides taking your employment, AI is forecast to improve productivity by up to half. It will make some corporations robber-baron wealthy. Investors will profit immensely, as are Nvidia shareholders (in a company now valued around $2 trillion). In a social context, this will be horrible. As jobs fade, overhead is reduced and profitability rises the wealth divide will surely gap further. Forces like MAGA will find new adherents. Ironically, more may turn toward socialism, state control or authoritarian leaders who pit populism against capitalism in a world where nobody can compete with an algo.

The Nvidia guys say this is ‘year one’ of a 10-year AI sweep that will leave us in a different world. It’s not just a brag. Seems inevitable. First, the pandemic. Now this. We’re drifting further and further from the familiar shoals of long ago, in 2020.

Maybe you should invest heavily in AI. Then go off-grid.

About the picture: “How about this happy guy, Garth?” writes Doug.  “This is Ted during an event this past summer with most of his favourite people.  I have learned plenty from your writing over the past few years.  Thank you for your commitment. Since I’m usually in a hurry I don’t spend much time reading the comments.  Probably a good thing.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.