The prelude

Remember these days. They are remarkable.

To our south, America is on a roll. The economy has defied expectations, growing stoutly despite a raft of aggressive rate hikes. The pace of inflation has dropped by two-thirds in a big win for the Fed. New hires abound. The jobless rate has been sub-4% for two years. Corporate profits are beating expectations. Wages are swelling. The stock market (S&P) just sailed past its former record high. Big American tech companies control the globe’s most important business. Taylor Swift reaffirms US cultural dominance. And Pax Americana has kept rogue states in line, preventing planetary warfare.

Given this, the incumbent president should cakewalk to another term. But, instead, chaos. In many ways, this guy remains the face of it…

Source: AP

Jacob Anthony Angeli Chansley, 36, got out of prison twenty months ago after serving time for his role in the January 6th Capital riot. Yeah, the horns guy. Some knew him as the QAnon Shanan. He was there to support his president, Donald Trump, and to prevent the ascension of the new guy, Joe Biden. For his role, he was sentenced to just over three years behind bars, then released early.

Chansley briefly served in the US Navy, discharged for refusing anthrax vaccine and being diagnosed as schizophrenic. He was a long-time activist, conspiracy theorist and ardent Trump fanboy. He counter-protested Black Lives Matter events, has been labelled an ecofascist and followed online by legions. His mom calls him ‘a patriot’.

So what?

Well, Chansley may be nuts, but his image is folk history in America, standing on the speaker’s podium in the House of Representatives. That spot is now controlled by Trump’s party, the Republicans. Trump will be their presidential nominee shortly. Polling shows he has a shockingly decent chance of regaining the White House, despite facing four criminal trials and 91 felony charges after having been found guilty of sexual abuse, hit with $80 million in defamation damages and having his business condemned as fraudulent while a whack of his former senior advisors have been arrested and charged with federal offences.

Like I said, remarkable.

Biden’s biggest crime is being 81 (Trump is 77). And looking like it. Both men, as presidents, added immensely to the US debt, ran massive deficits and failed to secure the country’s southern border. Despite the shock of the pandemic, inflation, galloping interest rates, political polarization and the 2021 insurrection, America has pushed forward. The economic renaissance and record financial markets now belie the seething anger and hatred that American political actors – mostly Trumpian – have fomented.

So what happens (maybe)? How does this matter to your RRSP and your family’s finances?

The outcome of the November election is decidedly in doubt. Biden was wounded deeply this past week by a partisan report describing him as elderly and calling into question his memory and mental acuity. People were shocked to learn he couldn’t recall the specific year of his son’s death. (I cannot remember the year my mother died. But I sure recall the moment.) And while Trump recently confused Nancy Pelosi (Democrat, 83, former Speaker, woman) with Nikki Haley (Republican, 52, opponent, woman), Biden’s has taken the biggest hit.

If Biden stays on the ballot and Trump survives his legal maelstrom, polls suggest a tie or a Trump win. If Trump loses, Chansley may dig his horns out of the closet. Some have even mused civil war is possible. If Biden is replaced (unlikely, not impossible) the outcome of the vote is wildly uncertain. But it seems volatility is on the agenda, whatever transpires.

If Trump wins?

There are concerns he will try to politicize the Fed and engineer a meaningful reduction in interest rates. That will goose the economy, raise profits, rekindle inflationary pressures, drop mortgage rates and energize real estate. He may, again, decrease taxation. More economic stimulus, more profits and jobs, higher stock market values, larger federal deficits, increased borrowing and endless partisan debt ceiling crises.

Trump has also vowed to begin mass deportations of aliens, ‘within moments’ of being elected. He’s promised to weaponize the agencies of government to weed out ‘the vermin’ of political opponents. More importantly, he is an isolationist and protectionist.

An ‘America first’ trade policy could be bad news for Canada, while a US shunning of NATO and cutting off support to Ukraine (already happening under Trump’s influence) could empower Tucker Carlson’s Russian BFF to threaten European stability. More military buildup, less stable energy, more volatility. Will China take advantage of a Trump global withdrawal to move on Taiwan (chip capital of the planet)? How about that dipstick running North Korea? Without American guns and billions, whither Israel? None of this seems good. Stable. Hopeful.

By the way, has anyone else noticed the anti-Zelensky, pro-Putin, immigrant-trashing, Tucker-lovin’ tone of this pathetic blog’s comments section lately?

The American economy says ‘stay invested’. The American reality says stay on guard.

About the picture: “Longtime reader of your blog. Thank you for the advice you’ve given over the years. This is our dog, Hurley. He is a 13 year old Brussels Griffon and Yorkie mix. He doesn’t look or act like it, but he is an senior citizen in dog years. He’s collecting his Old Age Security payments through endless treats and naps all day.”

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