Undaunted

What happens if you run a free financial blog and occasionally talk about politics because, ya know, this affects the economy?

Well, yesterday was an example. The ascendency of Donald Trump has a lot of analysts deep-thinking about the impact on equity markets of protectionism or isolationism by America. Bond yields and prices, too. Monetary policy. The reserve currency. Trade pacts and military alliances. It’s what analysts do. It’s what people who manage money for other people do. You gaze as far down the highway as you can, scanning for risks. Then, you adjust the course.

So on Sunday we talked about this. We gave you some current thinking from The Street. This year, 2024, will be an interesting one to navigate. In future posts we’ll suggest investment strategies for those who wish to minimize damage and avoid a head-on collision. In the meantime, I will admit, it’s getting harder to provide objective and apolitical analysis.

Here’s the kind of message I don’t show Dorothy. And I wonder, is this where Canadian conservativism is heading?

You are attacking PP. You promote politics as honest governance. What a crock of shit. Censorships everywhere.
You are a wordsmith bullshitter.
And a commie rat that will be exterminated.
We have guns.
You should shut your pie hole if you don’t want to be involved in a revolution.
Its well on its way.

A sane man would conclude there’s no gain in fighting this. Poilievre and Trump supporters are not to be turned. It’s a culture war. Beyond politics. Putin’s an okay guy because he has wrapped himself in Christian social conservative values. He’s the epitome of anti-woke. So the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Trump likes him. A new survey finds a huge jump in Canadians con supporters who now oppose aid to Ukraine. Many of them come to this blog to say so.

Well, the fewer democracies that survive in the world, the more skewed will be the global economy. Look what China  has done to its real estate and property market. It makes Canada’s ‘housing crisis’ look like a pimple beside a mountain. Authoritarian regimes, lacking in checks, balances and public oversight, can make massive mistakes. Meanwhile leaders like Putin or Xi maintain control by keeping their populations ignorant. Without a functioning, questioning and indie professional media, people only know what they’re told. Thus tyrants wish to control the message and discredit or eliminate critics.

Trump brands CNN, the New York Times and the networks as ‘fake news’. Reporters are mocked and called ‘liars’. Poilievre campaigns to shut down and ‘defund the CBC’. He ridicules The Canadian Press. Despite dispatching tens of thousands of young men to their deaths in eastern Ukraine, Putin has an 80% approval rating. And, of course, he just killed Navalny. Few know. Even this pathetic blog earns death threats.

By the way, of all the countries in the world, just 8% are full democracies (Canada is one). Authoritarian states account for almost 40%. The remainder are flawed or hybrid democracies. Volatility is planetary, and to date the effects of Pax Americana and the US dollar as the global reserve currency have been essential in keeping it under control. As described here yesterday, this is what Trump, populism, media control, protectionism, conspiracy theories and isolationism threaten.

All this matters to the value of your TFSA and pension plan, to the TSX and mortgage rates. Trump wants to cut off Ukraine and weaken NATO, meaning Putin will prevail. That will militarize Europe in a way not seen since 1945. His vow to curtail trade with massive tariffs is as disruptive to Canada as Poilievre’s promise to politicize our central bank and manipulate interest rate policy. These are all consequential actions.

People disgruntled they can’t afford a house or irritated at seeing too many brown families need to worry about the deeper threat we face. Politics is going tribal. Leaders are gaining strength by trucking on envy and revenge, disguised as freedom and nationalism. They’re out for them, not you.

So, go ahead and threaten. Make my day.

About the picture: “We are long-time readers of your blog and wanted to share photos of our dog, Ellie, for use in a future post,” write Kary and James. “She crossed the rainbow bridge on Saturday at the age of 14 years 3 months, having been a constant source of joy in our lives. She loved to explore the downtown Toronto waterfront, bringing a smile to many of those who saw her trotting along in her red booties. Many thanks for all of your insights over the years.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.