A new reality

There’s a 30-metre-wide slash now between the houses and the forest. When this hunk of Fort Mac was rebuilt after The Beast ravaged the city in 2016 people got a lot more serious about climate change, wild fires and real estate preservation in Canada.

Now fire is back. Not as bad this time. Just 10% of the local population has been moved out. But it’s only May. There was snow on the ground weeks ago. Currently there are out-of-control blazes in northern BC (Fort Nelson, where flurries are expected today), Manitoba and Fort McMurray, where it may take weeks to put it out.

The count is 1,109 wild fires so far this year, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. They have consumed 336,779 hectares, which compares to the 10-year average (by this date) of 131,354 hectares. At the moment 26 are out of control, nine are being held and 76 are reasonably contained.

Here’s a glimpse at the amount of land just scorched, compared to the long-term average. Doesn’t look good.

Wild fires char 250% more land so far in 2024

There are two points to this blog post. First, a mess of Trumpers and MAGA-lite PP adherents in Canada deny anthropogenic climate change. They call it weather and tell you to pull on your big-boy pants. They see this kind of scary talk as a major threat to the O&G industry, Alberta and personal freedoms. It’s at the very heart of the current Con cry of ‘Axe the [carbon] Tax’. Doubtless a number of them will crawl into the comments swamp below to fume and dis.

Second, a chort of young people are terrified at what the country and the planet may look like in thirty years, especially given the apparent failure so far to corral emissions, global warming and the resultant storms, fires, floods and crop stress. Trump says it’s a hoax. Xi seems totally unconcerned about the environment. Putin is too busy blowing things up to care. And nobody seems to think that growing the world population from 2.5 billion (when I was born) to 8.1 billion now is a problem. In the last fifty years, says the World Wildlife Fund, we’ve wiped out 69% of animal populations. The world has lost 83% of freshwater aquatic life since Dorothy and I married.

No wonder the kids are scared. If that amount of damage can be done in the working lifetime of one guy, what comes next?

Here’s Sarah, from Vancouver Island:

I’ve been reading your blog on and off now for the past 5-ish years (mostly when my concerned mother sends an article around in the family group chat, but then I get sucked down the rabbit hole). I appreciate the candid advice. One thing I’ve noted missing is some opinions, ruminations or advice on the age of intensifying risks of buying a home due to climate change. As an early-career professional, with savings enough to buy a home but unsure of the consequences related to such an issue, I’d love to read your advice on this topic. Wildfires aren’t as big of a concern here yet, and I hope to stay in this area.

Whether the climate-deniers buy it or not, this issue will affect real estate values and development in the years to come, as more and more folks like Sarah make decisions about what to buy, where to purchase and even if they want to be saddled with debt and physical property. The risks are obvious. Fire is huge in Canada, which is 40% covered by forest. Rising sea levels are a big deal, since we have 243,000 km of coastlines – the most on the planet. Smoke is a growing concern, as we saw last summer when BC and AB blazes sent people running inside in the GTA and blotted out the sun in New York City. Temps are more extreme, says Environment Canada. There will be a higher count of vicious storms, says the Canadian Hurricane Centre (I went through two of them last year, when in NS).

How to protect your real estate

So, some things to remember include not moving into a forested area, no matter how idyllic it seems. Ensure any home you consider is well-insulated and also as self-sufficient as possible (you need a genset). Don’t move into anything on a floodplain, at sea level or on a craggy cliff over the ocean. Make sure you can insure a property before you make a firm offer (or include that as a condition). The inability to get coverage from wary companies could be a huge factor in securing future financing. Be aware that lack of insurance in areas prone to floods or fires could seriously depress property values in the years to come, possibly make some places unsaleable.

More broadly, in a world facing these pressures there will be far more migration. Climate refugees will multiple, as people are forced by a lack of water, affordable food or habitable land to move. Now that we’re more than tripled our human population in one lifetime and erased so much animal and aquatic life, the mass movement of families seems inevitable. Politicians, populist governments and nations standing in the way, erecting border walls and fences will probably lead to more conflict. Understandable. It’s human nature. But, then, humans caused this.

So, Sarah, you can consider another option. Stay flexible and mobile. Instead of rooting in one place and shouldering unrepayable debt at a time of rapid change and unknown outcomes, why not be liquid, free and adaptable?

In your shoes, in your time, that would be my choice.

About the picture: This is Sarah’s cat. “I am a very concerned, eco-anxious saver,” she says. “This is our rambunctious boy, Cheddar, wearing a sweater a friend made him. Doesn’t he look dashing?!”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.