Basel boi

Did you know Avril Lavigne died and was replaced by a body double named Melissa? Millions believe it. Must be true. It was on the Internet.

Well, the Canadian rocker babe has just rekindled her career. Fans flocked to see her belt out teeny-bopper hits like Sk8er Boi in Van a few nights ago. Apparently the rumour (started online in 2011) that she’d croaked a decade earlier was just conspiracy crap. If not, that Melissa can really perform. And do killer eyeliner.

Sigh. This is the world now. Nobody knows what’s real. Misinformation, wild theory and outright lies swirl around disguised as facts.

The Trumpers are probably the best-known conspiracy theorists around. (The 2020 US election was stolen. The Jan.6 attack was orchestrated by the CIA and Antifa. Joe Biden has dementia.) In Canada, the Convoy truckers and anti-vaxers have morphed from ‘Pfizer-kills’ to ‘the WEF and George Soros control Trudeau’.

In fact this stuff is so ingrained that Oppo leader Pierre Poilievre says, if elected PM, he’d ban people from attending the World Economic Forum. “There will be no mandatory digital ID in this country, and I will ban all of my ministers and top government officials from any involvement in the World Economic Forum,” he said in a Penticton speech, neatly knitting together two fallacies. Alberta premier Danielle Smith is echoing the same anti-globalist sentiment. (By the way, Stephen Harper and his minions attended all the WEF meetings, as do Trudeau ministers.)

Clearly the world’s gone global over the past decades, helping explain the absence of any world war in eighty years. That may be changing now with the rise of populist governments in Europe, the resurrection of Trump and the current spreading conflicts involving Putin’s authoritarian regime and Israel’s right-wing prime minister. Surveys show a growing number of citizens worldwide are swinging back to nationalism, tribalism, tighter borders, anti-elitism and ‘strong’ leaders.

The economic implications are scary. Trade is global. Financial structures are global. Central banks coordinate global monetary policy. A nation like Canada, with a small population and a First World standard of living – reliant on exports and dependent for much prosperity on open borders with America – could be especially at risk if countries revert to nation-states.

Having stated this – the obvious – we also need common sense. And that brings us to Basel IV.

Industrialized nations started coordinating banking systems decades ago. ‘Basel Accords’ flowed from meetings in Basel, Switzerland (home of the Bank of International Settlements), and are meant to stabilize and strengthen the global financial system. That’s a good thing. Humanity benefits. There have been three rounds of accords since 1988, the last one being in 2010. Now Basel IV is meant to help ensure banks in member countries are further strengthened with adequate capital reserves.

In the UK, the changes will be in place in 2030. In Europe, in 2032. In the US, maybe never. But in Canada our regulator has determined (for some reason) we must be compliant within the next two years – which could have a consequential impact on mortgages.

Aa banks increase reserves against risk-weighted assets (like home loans) they’ll have to cut dividends (not happening), issue more shares (highly unlikely) or reduce lending (the expected result). A new report by Scotiabank’s chief economist is stark. “Banks would have to shed about $270 billion in assets by 2026 if capital ratios remain unchanged and banks do not raise capital,” it says. And shedding assets means dumping loans.

This represents about 9% of current nominal GDP and would represent a major pull back in lending relative to the current situation… any asset shedding would likely be concentrated in these areas and would see banks lend less than would otherwise be the case to companies and individuals to meet these objectives. Moreover, as retail lending includes a large component of residential mortgages, banks would likely reduce mortgage financing to meet the regulatory changes.

Wait. Reduce mortgage lending by $270 billion? Don’t we need a ton more financing if the country is to build three million more houses buyers then need to mortgage?

Scotia calls this another Canadian ‘coordination failure’ between implementation of Basel IV and government efforts, policies and billions to promote house construction. It could, “force banks to cut back lending to the very sectors of the economy governments are trying to mobilize financing for. Moreover, a potential reduction in mortgage financing at a time of dramatically rising demographic requirements risks making housing even less accessible to some Canadians despite government efforts to the contrary.”

Well, there’s something else to worry about today. First Melissa. Now this. So complicated.

About the picture: “After reading ‘The Road Ahead’, we sold our property and invested the cash 20 years ago,” writes Denyse. “The interest we earn annually pays the rent today in B.C. We are very fortunate 70 year olds, living the “Good Life” in Canada. Thank you for the insightful articles about Economics, real estate and money! This photo is of nine year old Griselda enjoying retirement in Qualicum Beach,  BC.”

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