Diverging Trends in U.S. Trade with China and the Rest of the World

Trade between the U.S. and China ticked up in April 2024 over March 2024′s level, but not by enough to reverse its falling trend.

Year-over-year, the trailing twelve month average of the combined nominal value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China fell to $47.4 billion, down $6.7 billion from April 2023′s level. With inflation increasing the value of those exchanged goods, the decline in real terms is greater.

These changes don’t yet reflect the new series of anti-free trade tariffs announced by the Biden admininstration on 14 May 2024. Most of the announced new tariffs will take effect on 1 August 2024, while others will be delayed to either 1 January 2025, so the negative impact to trade between the two nations can be expected to continue in the months ahead.

The following chart shows the trends in U.S.-China trade from January 2017 through April 2024.

Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, Noccolo Conte, and Sabrina Lam provide a chart showing the new and increased tariffs being imposed by President Biden’s administration and when they’re set to take effect:

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has not announced any new expansion of its anti-free trade measures with the rest of the world’s nations.

The combined level of goods imported by and exported from the United States with the rest of the world (not including China) rose in April 2024. Here, the trailing twelve month average of combined value of those goods shows more convincing signs of beginning to recover after bottoming in January 2024.

The trailing twelve month average of the combined goods exchanged between the U.S. and the rest of the world, not including China, rose $2 billion to $380 billion between March and April 2024. That figure is $34.3 billion below the level it would otherwise be in April 2024 had the trend that existed before the Biden administration’s 2023 anti-free trade measures continued.

The trailing twelve month average of the goods exchanged between the U.S. and the entire world (including China) was $428.1 billion in April 2024. That figure is $46.5 billion below the counterfactual provided by the trend in that trade that existed before the Biden administration’s 2023 anti-free trade actions.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with China. Last updated: 6 June 2024.

U.S. Census Bureau. Trade in Goods with World, Not Seasonally Adjusted. Last updated: 6 June 2024.

Image Credit: Sailing Freighter Photo by Tomas Williams on Unsplash.