El Niño and the Pace of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Accumulation

We often focus on human-produced contributions to the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere, but there are natural causes that contribute to that accumulation as well.

A good example is provided by the cyclical El Niño weather phenomenon, which has often added to the increase in atmospheric CO₂ levels because of its effects. Those effects often include creating drought conditions in the nation of Indonesia, which contributes to an increased incidence of wildfires during periods of strong El Niños. The years of 1997, 2015 and 2023 were accompanied by large wildfires in Indonesia, which because they occur on Indonesia’s peat-rich land, produces much larger amounts of carbon dioxide emissions than wildfires in other parts of the world.

Since July 2023, Earth has experienced a strong El Niño event, which peaked in late 2023 and is now receding. As it does, the year-over-year change in the rate at which carbon dioxide accumulates in the air has been falling, which can be seen in the following chart:

El Niño and Indonesian wildfire events play a significant role in the cyclical variation of carbon dioxide emissions. By contrast, China’s growing carbon dioxide emissions from its prolonged efforts to stimulate its economy by expanding its coal-fired power production has produce a noticeable impact in causing the pace of CO₂ accumulation in the Earth’s air to increase over the last four decades. You can see that effect in the rising level of the lows in the variation of CO₂ accumulation.

References

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Online Data]. Updated 5 June 2024.

Jan Null. Golden Gage Weather Services. El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities. [Online article]. Accessed 9 June 2024.

Hans Nicholas Jong. 2023 fires increase fivefold in Indonesia amid El Niño. [Online article]. 10 January 2024.

Image credit: ENSO – El Nino Conditions by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Wikimedia Commons. Public Domain image.