Not so bad

So the big flag went up on the side of my house this week.

Terry, Dennis and Devon were busy rebuilding a fence that had been murdered when the neighbour built his pool last season. They were recruited into the job of erecting a Canadian pennant that’s about 20 feet in height.

Regular addicts will know that my precious 32-year-old Peace Tower flag, presented to me in the presence of Her Majesty, was trashed and taken three Canada Days ago by Indigenous activists and allies. They wanted our national day cancelled in shame over residential schools. I resisted, arguing they (or anyone) had no right to tell me not to have pride in my country. My flag stayed up. Until it was destroyed on the morning of July 1, 2021.

Colleagues I work with subsequently arranged to have a replacement made in a remarkable act of support and patriotism. And now that adorns my old pile of bricks. Cody, the armed attack Chow and professional chick magnet, stands guard (above). All’s good.

Of course, I regret our flag has been absconded by ‘patriots’ who nail it to the back of pickups and parade around with ‘F-Trudeau’ banners. It degrades everything. But after the prime minister flew it at half-mast for an astonishing 161 days following the alleged discovery of historic graves as the pandemic ended, no wonder. If the government was ashamed of the flag, then opponents were free to embrace it.

But to me, it’s not political. It’s us. Unlike the pissy youngish malcontents who come here to moan about not being able to afford a nice house, the majority feel good about this place. Maybe even better, after last night.

The American presidential debate was painful to watch as a grifter, liar and felon bombasted a tentative, weak-looking and mumbly president. It was Biden’s chance to prove he’s up to leading the world’s greatest superpower for four more years. He failed. It was Trump’s chance to appear presidential, honest and empathetic. He failed. Polling immediately shifted towards a return of 45 to the Oval Office next January.

The consequences? They go far beyond the politics of conservatives vs liberals or ‘right’ against ‘woke’. A Trump win, which is now closer, will likely have some meaningful consequences for our own economy and prospects. None of them good.

We’ve touched on reports from Bay Street economists already citing the higher odds of inflation under a tax-cutting, free-spending, migrant-deporting Trump administration. That will inevitably reverse the rate-cutting tendency of the Fed. It will affect us, too. According to Scotia’s chief economist, if 45 becomes 47, Canadian interest rates would stop falling and start ascending – a full 2%. Ouch.

Meanwhile Trump is sour on NATO, which is scaring the crap out of Europe, just as nationalist, populist parties there gain favour. It’s music to the ears of Vlad Putin, who would probably end up eating a big hunk of Ukraine as US weaponry and support dries. And Netanyahu’s happy, too. Trump’s an Israel guy, and the subjugation of Palestinians would be pretty much assured, with troubling future consequences.

But trade’s the biggie. He wants a 10% tariff immediately on everything, plus even more punishing of the Chinese – 60%. That would cause a trade war, which he has famously said would be ‘”easy to win.” You just keeping hiking the tariff.

Université de Montréal professor Rodrigue Tremblay reminds us that this is how the Great Depression started. In 1930 Congress adopted a broad tariff policy, very similar to what Trump wishes. The result:

That induced other industrial countries to retaliate by raising their own barriers to trade to protect their industries. They ended up adopting similar—what was called “beggar-thy-neighbor”—protectionist trade policies, thus contributing to unravelling the entire international network of world trade. For example, U.S. imports from and exports to Europe fell by some two-thirds between 1929 and 1932. World trade contracted and so also did the entire world economy.

In other words, governments of the time threw gasoline on the fire. They made the early financial and economic situation much worse by raising import barriers that led to sever contraction of worldwide economic activity. Could history repeat itself today?

Of course it could. And may soon.

So isolationism, protectionism, nationalism and populism begetting trade conflict, stimulative fiscal policy plus avowed retribution of political opponents and support for abortion bans and Christian values – emanating from a man found guilty of sex abuse, financial fraud and election interference, also facing 60 more criminal charges. It defies understanding. Logic. Precedent. But after last night, it sure seems closer.

Things are not perfect here. But in contrast, not so bad. If you cannot see that, you’re part of the fringe. And Cody’s ready for you.

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