Boring

Ninety bucks. That was the cost of a barrel of Brent crude this morning. Up another 3% for reasons we told you about yesterday. It’s probably not over yet.

Since the Americans (and little bro Israel) started the Iran war at the end of February there has been a global energy shock. Now that bombing is a thing again, US gas is $4 a gallon, the Strait of Hormuz is closed and serious fuel rationing has hit half the world. American inflation has swollen and the president’s approval has shrunk. Iran has not rolled over. Trump is stuck. So he’s moved on to shredding confidence in elections and scolding us about smoke.

Against this backdrop, isn’t Canada grand?

The folks I chatted with on the weekend, from Pennsylvania, Ohio and Tennessee sure think so. They drove to the oasis where I hang out to escape the drama down south. Either nobody who comes here voted for you-know-who, or they just can’t bring themselves to admit it. (Trump got 77 million votes in 2024, while Kamala Harris scored 75 million.)

“We came to get away from the drama,” a woman from the Bluetick Coonhound state said. “I’m a teacher, and every day we have to fight those morons.” I didn’t ask which ones.

Well, Canada’s economy is rebounding. The Gordie Howe bridge opens in a week (and we keep the tolls until it’s paid off). The jobless rate is at a six-month low. Our central bank rate of 2.25% is way below then Fed’s 3.5-3.75%. We are not governed by an aging autocrat with regal tendencies recently found guilty of sexual abuse. Wages here are rising faster than the cost of living. Real estate has become 20% more affordable in the past four years. And look at today’s inflation print: back down to 2.8%. Again, a better number than our American visitors face back home, in a country currently at war, spendigng billions on munitions.

By the way, there have been higher returns on Bay Street than Wall Street so far in 2026. Investors in the TSX clocked 29% in the past twelve months, against 17% for the Dow. They have Vanilla Ice and Kid Rock. We have Angine de Poitrine.

The cost of living in Canada is largely under control compared to the dumpster fire to the south. Health care premiums there have flared, real estate remains at unaffordable levels and federal tariffs have impacted consumer prices while the AI capex orgy is adding to inflation, causing data-centre conflict and pushing tech stocks to crazy levels.

Boring is better. That’s us. “We adore boring,” chirped the coupe from Pennsylvania with a red Tesla. “If only we could move here. But your government won’t let us.”

Not yet. It’s coming.

Well, back to inflation. The current reading is down from 3.2% last time and less than economists expected. Energy costs fell, so did food. And housing came in at a lower level.

“Shelter eased to 1.5% y/y, matching the slowest pace in over five years, as mortgage interest costs remain tame and home prices are flat to lower,” says BMO economics. “While the broader housing market is showing signs of bottoming, we’re not anticipating an upswing in prices which should keep shelter inflation contained.”

Indeed, mortgage rates here are stable. You can get a five-year loan for about 3.5% – which is vastly less than the current 6.44% for an American long-term borrowing. Meanwhile the current thinking is that stable inflation, improved GDP and decent job growth should keep interest rates steady until the end of 2026. Probably higher after that.

“However, we expect underlying inflationary pressures to remain muted, and potentially even decelerate a little further in late summer/early fall as the temporary increases in some areas linked to the FIFA World Cup fade,” say the economists at CIBC. “The lack of any acceleration in underlying inflationary pressure will enable the Bank of Canada to remain on hold, allowing rates to be kept low enough to support the recovery that is underway within the Canadian economy.”

By the way, when oil goes up we make more money. Like Iran. Ha.

About the picture: “I am a long-term reader of your column and always on the look out for interesting dog photos for you,” writes Cathy in Calgary. “Today when I was out for a walk at North Glenmore Park, I saw a big group of dog owners with the same breed of dog on the walking path.  When the group took a break in the shade, I chatted with an owner and met Haru.  Haru is a Japanese Mountain Dog (Shiba Inu breed)   .I learned that there is a club in Calgary that organizes this summer meet-up.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/07/20/boring/