How USrael Can Instigate A New Turkey-Iran, Sunni-Shia War

With the American military and European armies leaving the Middle East, most likely for good, all signs point to the instigation of a Muslim civil war by these powers between the Sunni side led by Turkey and the Shia side led by Iran. 

Israel would obviously be the biggest beneficiary of such a massive war, and they will play both sides off against each other at every opportunity.

What we saw in Iraq immediately after the American invasion in 2003 could be repeated on a regional scale. 

The battle lines are already being drawn. The pieces are being put into motion. 

Turkey’s takeover of Damascus in 2024 mirrored Iran’s takeover of Baghdad almost two decades earlier. They each have their Arab capital now. And they both have America and the Kurds to thank.

In the Caucasus, Azerbaijan is a natural ally of Turkey, and practically a Turkish province at this point. It is also an Israeli outlet and strategic partner, supplying it with energy, mercenaries, and a potential launch pad into northern Iran.

Its neighbour, Armenia, is the big question mark as far as where its loyalties lie. Geopolitically it’s like God put it there just to mess with the Turks. 

Yerevan can go in Russia’s direction, or the EU’s, it’s really up for grabs. Like in Kurdistan, war and occupation of Armenia is more than likely in a Muslim civil war. But because it is a Christian nation it might receive some international attention and protection. Russia could also intervene and invade the country on humanitarian grounds, similar to what NATO did in Libya.

The most interesting battlespace could be the Persian Gulf “countries.” Iraq and Iran can easily absorb Kuwait. Ditto for Bahrain. These moves could drive Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE fully to the Turkish side. That would leave Yemen as the big prize for both sides. 

In Lebanon, all three sides – The Sunni-led Turks, the Shia-led Iranians, and Israel – will continue to carve out their zones of influence and wage war on the peoples there. Israel has the advantage in Lebanon because of its proximity and its ruthlessness. After its assassination of Nasrallah it went on the offensive and hasn’t stop a moment. They’re basically carpet bombing the whole southern side of the country. 

The two nations I’m most interested in all of this are Egypt and Pakistan. USrael is dominating both capitals right now. They are not sovereign and powerful nations. But that could change. With Egypt’s geopolitical position and Pakistan’s army and nukes, they could tilt the favour towards either the Sunnis or the Shia. 

Pakistan has a sizeable Shia population and Egypt has bad memories of Ottoman rule, so it’s not wise to assume they will automatically join the Sunni side. I think they will see who is winning and join that side.

India and Greece are on the periphery of this regional conflict, but they will be important players. India has clearly joined the Israeli camp. Greece has come under threat from Turkey recently. It can side with both Israel and the Shia depending on the situation. But it is the most vulnerable to a Turkish attack so I could see it being fully neutral and staying out of the war completely.