S&P 500 Rebounds as Investors Get Ready to Face the Scariest Month for Stocks

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) climbed 1.2% over its previous week’s close to end the trading week at 7,743.41 on Friday, 25 September 2026. The index is just 0.7% below its record all-time high closing value from 13 August 2026.

The same things that have been rattling investors for much of the third quarter of 2026 continued trying to scare investors during the week that was. Oil prices kept jumping about with geopolitical developments. The big AI companies kept themselves in the news with releases of new flagship products and calls for regulation that seem aimed at helping them avoid product liability claims. Meanwhile, bond markets all over the globe have been coping with quickly rising yields, with stock prices reacting to their ups and downs.

Plus, it’s not even October yet, which is historically the scariest month for stock prices because it’s the most volatile!

Even with all the week’s news and the upcoming scary season, the S&P 500 performed predictably. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the index’ trajectory is pretty closely following the dividend futures-based model‘s projection of where stock prices are expected provided investors are focusing on the final quarter of 2026.

Here are the headlines that contributed to how the market moved during the trading week ending on the final full week of September 2026.

Monday, 21 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil price dips to $100 on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy, partial recovery in Saudi exports

• Global diesel prices hit record highs, further rises possible

Fed minions worry inflation might spread beyond oil prices, blame “strong demand”, standing by to deliver more rate hikes:

• Kashkari warns inflation has spread beyond oil shock

• Fed’s Kashkari says inflation is still too high in ‘all aspects’ of US economy, in Fox News interview

Fed’s Goolsbee: Strong demand may be adding to US inflation, ‘no ambiguity’ how Fed would react

• Goolsbee rejects idea of Fed cutting rates to help US finance its debt

Fed’s Musalem says more rate hikes likely needed to quell inflation

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s offshore trust tax crackdown could impact single stocks, BofA says

BOJ minions commitment to more interest rate hikes questioned by currency traders:

• Yen extends losing streak as traders question BOJ’s rate-hike pace

ECB minions worried Eurozone gas price rise will cause inflation, expand use of blockchain technlogy to get larger share of transactions:

• Europe’s gas price surge may feed into inflation more quickly, ECB finds
• ECB opens blockchain link to financial markets

Wall Street surged higher to start the week ahead of the Trump-Xi summit

• Nasdaq notches record-high close, AI optimism reignites and Treasury yields retreat
• AMD joins $1 trillion club as chipmakers rally on AI-driven demand

Tuesday, 22 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil falls to two-week low as Gulf supply outlook improves

• Saudi Arabia ramps up Gulf oil exports after pipeline attack, data shows

Fed minions see growth signs for U.S. economy, afraid of inflation they’ve allowed to fester for years:

• Fed’s Barkin says economy may be firming, inflation not limited to energy, tariff shocks
• Fed’s Collins says she supported rate hike, warns of elevated inflation risks
• Fed’s Williams says rate-control toolkit is working well
• Fed’s discount window supports market liquidity, Jefferson says

ECB minions say Eurozone inflation to drop to their target sometime next year:

• ECB’s Lane sees inflation returning to target from mid-2027-paper

Wall Street closed mixed as the Nasdaq notched a new all-time high

• Nasdaq reaches record high close, AI stocks rally

Wednesday, 23 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• 10-year Treasury yield rockets to 19-year high. Here’s what’s driving the spike

• US 30-year mortgage rate tops 7%, hits 2-year high

US business activity at more than five-year high; inflation pressures building

Oil falls $1 on better supply outlook, hopes for US-Iran talks

• Trump supports diesel export ban as fuel prices hit records
• Oil industry warns a diesel export ban will raise fuel prices as Trump weighs restrictions

Fed minions aim at inflation, hit young and lower-income borrowers:

• Fed rate hike squeezes younger, lower-income borrowers

BOJ minions see Japan’s bond yields rise without them hiking Japan’s interest rates again:

• Historic day for global bonds as 10-year Treasury and JGB yields hit highest in decades

Eurozone sees growth, ECB minions say more megacorps needed for bigger Eurozone economic growth:

• Eurozone economic growth picks up speed as PMI climbs to 41-month high
• EU could recoup third of US economic lead with bigger firms, ECB says

U.S. equities closed deep in the red while Treasury yields surged

• Wall Street ends down as oil prices, Treasury yields rise

• As 5% Treasury yields lose shock value, investors start worrying about 6%

Thursday, 24 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US, China agree to extend trade truce by two months, work on bigger deal, Bessent says

• US, China agree to extend ‘the Busan agreement’ until January, Bessent says

Oil prices settle up about 3% as Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia lifts supply fears

• Oil jump sends 30-year yields to two-decade high

US business activity at more than five-year high; inflation pressures building

US new home sales jump to eight-month high in August

Fed minions worry about inflation, thinking about more rate hikes and how to regulate cryptocurrencies:

• Fed officials see rates likely rising to curb high inflation

• Fed’s Hammack warns inflation pressures remain tilted to upside
• Fed’s Williams says it is reasonable to see another US rate hike this year

US Federal Reserve proposes new stablecoin rules

Fed again hoping for a pain-free landing from current inflation spike

Bigger trouble, bigger stimulus developing in China:

• China’s fuel inventories hit over decade lows, raising concerns over comeback of export curbs

• China raises fuel prices but caps increase a second time

China central bank to inject more liquidity as Golden Week nears

BOJ minions deliver rate hike as expected, thinking about more:

• BOJ could raise rates every quarter, ex-policymaker says
• JGB yields jump as inflation worries resurface

ECB minions not seeing Eurozone inflation they’re most afraid of, want more megacorps in Eurozone; lower level minion quits to cash in on new job:

• ECB not seeing any big wage response to surging inflation

• Europe’s economy surprisingly resilient amid war-driven energy shock, surveys show
• ECB will decide on rates from meeting to meeting, Kocher tells newspaper

EU could recoup third of US economic lead with bigger firms, ECB say

ECB’s Schnabel quits to join IMF, setting in motion a board reshuffle

S&P 500 ends marginally lower as investors focus on US-Iran war

• Wall Street ended lower but pared losses on U.S.-Iran talks

Friday, 25 September 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US core capital goods orders point to robust growth in business spending on equipment
• US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows; price reductions boost new home sales
• Oil slides as US-Iran truce hopes outweigh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia

Fed minions starting to worry about AI, worrying less about banks, and still worried by inflation:

• Fed’s Schmid: Need to understand if AI “ecosystem” getting too big to fail
• US Fed plans to raise bank oversight thresholds, sources say
• Fed’s Hammack worried inflation expectations could deteriorate

Bigger trouble developing in and out of China:

• China fuels rush to turn AI video into an industry

ECB minions to France: Drop Dead

• France can’t count on ECB to fix debt woes, central bank chief says

S&P 500 posts weekly gains despite Treasury yield, oil headwinds

• Wall Street ends higher as investors buy AI stocks; Microsoft rallies
• U.S. equities ended in the green while Treasury yields cooled
• Earnings Scoreboard: 5 of 6 key S&P 500 reporting firms top EPS estimates and expand Y/Y profits

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still three more quarter point rate hikes over the next six months, with the next rate change expected on 28 October (2026-Q4). The remaining two rate hikes would appear set to follow at 12-week intervals, coming after the Fed meets on 27 January (2027-Q1) and 17 March (2027-Q1).

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool‘s projection of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in 2026-Q3 fell to +5.0%, dipping from the +5.1% annualized growth it forecast a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull being scared by a bear pointing to a calendar labeled ‘OCTOBER’ which is the scariest month of the year for the stock market”.