Mashed

How long would it take to sell all of the new condos currently available in the godless GTA?

Until the Spring of 2031.

Yes, it’s a record. Current inventory of almost 13,000 apartment units, at current sales levels, will not see the last deal done for almost 50 months. Obviously this means nobody is building new units, unless they’re headed for the rental market. As the industry’s been warning for the past couple of years, there could be a supply drought – and escalating prices – seven or eight years hence.

But lately ‘long term’ means the day after next. So nobody seems to care much.

Meanwhile the tables have turned on new housing that comes with dirt. In Ottawa sales last month essentially doubled year/year. In the GTA overall new home sales jumped 60% last month, even as condo deal plummeted 90% below long-term levels. On an annualized basis, apartment deals fell 40% – and September of ’25 sucked. So this September was apocalyptic.

Why the discrepancy?

A few reasons, including the fact people would rather live in a house than a condo.

Also, detached home values have dipped nicely in the past year – dwn more than 13% in the Toronto region, to an average of $1.25 million. Condo units, in contrast, cost about the same now (on average) as they did a year ago – a withering $1.03 million. After all, these units sit in massive, expensive, detailed, complex, highly-regulated structures atop hulking infrastructure that cost hundreds of millions to erect and took years to plan and build. They cost what they cost.

Then there is the tax thing.

The feds and Ontario are giving back HST on new builds to buyers. On homes worth $1.5 million or less that can be a whopping $130,000. It drops into the $24,000 range as prices edge towards $2 million.

Rebate rules aren’t friendly to high-rise units, however, due to long construction timelines and offers tied to overall sales for a project. So while low-rise deals have been hot for months now, the apartment side of the market is croaking.

“The high-rise sales performance in September should be a wake-up call,” says the industry association, “that there needs to be further measures and a modification of the program rules to allow the high-rise sector to better participate in the program, which would enable homebuyers in every segment of the housing market to benefit.”

There are other woes to mention when it comes to the poor, unloved, unoccupied units. For example, the HST rebate does not apply to any housing that becomes a rental – which mean investors are knocked out of the picture. Things have been bleak for some time when it comes to turning condos into leased homes.

Rents have been declining. Property taxes have increased. Condo fees and utility costs have risen. Mortgage rates are higher. Investors who bought units during the Covid years at crazy-low loan rates have been walloped as renewal time rolled around – and they’re unable to pass that extra overhead on to tenants.

So close to half the rental condo units purchased within the past decade are in negative cash flow. Rents fail to cover costs. Making it worse is the fact capital appreciation has fizzled. Valuations are falling, so owning something which loses value every month and costs more than it earns is, well, dumb. As a result, the investor class is gone, gone, gone.

Deepening the condo crisis: builders created too many small downtown units thinking the post-pandemic world would look like the Before Times. It doesn’t. The cubicle army has thinned, demand has dropped bigly for 500-foot one-bedders and the scene is glutted.

Finally, just look at the assignment market. That’s where buyers of three or four years ago, now approaching closing day on units with scant (or no) equity remaining are trying to bail. Prices there are coursing lower. And since realtor-run boards disallow assignments from being advertised on the public MLS system, these listings are now flooding shadow platforms. Some of the discounts are elephantine.

So, if you enjoy inflicting pain on speculators or the merely gullible, here ya go.

About the picture: “Hey Garth, hope you’re well,” writes Andrew. “Here’s Gibson & Bala post breakfast waiting for our daily 12K.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected].”

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/10/26/mashed/