Profiles in Courage and Declaring a “Typhoon Day” in Taiwan

When JFK wrote his famous Profiles in Courage book, I doubt that he was thinking about the Mayor of Taipei, Taiwan. Taiwan faces typhoon risk. Leaders of cities face decisions about how often to declare a “disaster event”. During election years, the Mayor is much more likely to announce a “typhoon day off” and this shuts down the schools and many people don’t need to go to work. Is it a coincidence that these “adaptation announcements” are more likely to take place during election years?

The New York Times has published a great article on this topic.

Put yourself in the Mayor’s shoes. The Typhoon can either be horrible or mild. Facing this random variable, what is the Mayor’s best choice at a time when he seeks to be re-elected. Four outcomes can unfold;

Case #1 Nasty Typhoon and Mayor chooses “go to work” (no short run vacation). In this case, the population is at risk as they try to achieve their daily logistics. This case puts the population at risk.

Case #2; Nasty Typhoon and Mayor chooses “stay home and shelter”. This is the pro-adaptation strategy that protects the population during a scary time.

Case #3; “Mild Typhoon and Mayor chooses go to work” . This is the business as usual strategy.

Case #4 Mild Typhoon and Mayor declared don’t go to work. This is the vacation scenario. Both voters and kids love this! A free vacation day!!

In the 1970s when I was in school, on a snowy day in Westchester we would run to the local cable television channel on TV to wait to see if our school had been closed for the day. That is scenario #4.

The author of this new paper on the Taiwan Typhoon effect is: Austin Wang of UNLV.

The interesting economics here is the Mayor’s asymmetric decision here. Mayors know that voters have trouble holding them accountable and disaster risk is one criteria.

In Chicago, in some snowy years —- some incumbent Mayors lost the election when snow removal wasn’t prompt. Same issue. What are salient issues that opponents can point to. Incumbents know this and play a smart strategic move!

To end on a serious note, the marginal risk reduction in staying home during a Typhoon depends on the risks of urban flooding on the roads and paths and subways taken by people to commute. I would be interested in the extent of this flooding and whether engineering progress has reduced this risk.