The foe

Leslie is 48 with a stable job at a large bank that shall go nameless (it’s blue), a so-so DC pension, a two-bed, half-paid-for condo downtown, a Cockapoo and three investments accounts, two registered, holding a little north of $350,000 in ETFs and stock in her employer. No husband, partner, BF or dalliance.

“Men are a pain, so demanding,” she told me. “But not you, probably. Maybe.”

She called. We talked. Turns out Leslie is taking most of her portfolio to cash, “for at least a year” , because we’re on the cusp of social, political, economic and financial chaos.

“I mean, have we ever, really faced this combination of stuff before,” she asked? “How can anyone have the confidence to just throw their money out there in the market and see what happens?”

Why so spooked?

Like many, she’s worried about what Trump will do after he has his butt kicked in the midterm elections, only a month away. He may try to deny the results, sowing mayhem. He may get more radical and wild in the final two years of his public life, or act more like an 81-year-old crazy uncle.

She’s concerned about the bond market, rising yields and the be-careful message they send regarding government debt, inflation and an overvalued stock market. Central banks will have to raise rates in response, she says, and that puts her job in jeopardy, since her compensation is tied directly to mortgage originations. Leslie thinks the AI thing is a timebomb and companies with multi-trillion-dollar market caps could implode if more rogue agents escape, attack key sites and cause a huge government crackdown.

She’s upset over separatists in Quebec, secessionists in Alberta, the worsening trade war with America, reckless government spending and the inevitability of higher taxes on people like her – making over $150,000. “My pension sucks,” she says, “I’ll soon be 50 and the job is always in question. I need to save every dollar possible.”

There’s the usual stuff, of course. Her condo is probably worth less than she paid three years ago. The dog walker now charges $50 a day. Her mom in Windsor is unwell, and that means a lot of weekend driving and expense. The world feels like an endless challenge. “And it’s October,” she said on the weekend. “Bad things always happen in October.”

Well, maybe. But typically not for financial markets.

September has a rep for being the worst period. In fact the months immediately after that are among the best historically for investors, with the six month leg between October and April marking the largest gains.

But, yeah, October in 1987 brought the worst crash in history – 21% in a single day. Leslie was still a child then, but says she remembers her dad being crushed. He’d been a banker, too. Some things get stuck in the sieve of memory and never get unstuck.

Well, what can turn doubt into confidence?

Not much. We’re all overwhelmed with current events, negative headlines, emerging threats, toxic social media and living in a world of autocrats, deep division and simple meanness. Emotions run high when everything changes, every day, usually for the worse.

Canada will be fine, I told her. Trump won’t last. Your condo will creep back, eventually. And even if AI turns out like dot-com, time will again heal that misstep. Markets ebb and flow, some stocks will blow up but the economy holds more promise than danger. Some things – the climate, world conflict, autonomous killer drones, another Drake tour – are simply awful and beyond anyone’s control. So focus on what you can change. And only that.

So Leslie was told that the greatest threat to her future, her retirement and financial security, is herself. By focussing on the near risk – volatility and the fear of loss – she’s sprinting towards the far greater risk, which is running out of money.

She has forty years left (or more) and thirty of them may be without a paycheque. Government benefits will barely keep up with her condo fees, groceries and Cockapoo food. There is still a mortgage and a life to finance, and her employment could be snatched away sooner than expected (thanks, Anthropic).

The corporate pension is only a modest RRSP, and her savings are worthy, but inadequate. If she goes to cash, the return will be 2% or less. If she stays invested and the next turbulent decade matches the last chaotic one, her nest egg will double in size. At age 58 with $700,000 she could harvest $3,500 a month, if need be, retaining the principal amount. At sixty, CPP clicks in. At 65, add OAS. Plus the small corporate DC pension stream. Not fit for a princess, but survivable for decades.

Simple lesson. It’s not the market you need to worry abut. Not the world. Not nature. Not mankind.

It’s you.

About the picture: ““…..Say hello to ‘Lunatic’ (we call her ‘Luna’ for short).  Luna is our 5-year old female Samoyed, our second from a breeder, but again born with a couple of off-colour ear markings, making her defective and unsuitable for the discerning and pretentious show ring,” writes Ken (aka ‘Dazed and Confused’) in Mississauga. “We didn’t share those details with her when we adopted her at the age of 6 months.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/10/05/the-foe/