Is that it?

Will the American blue wave wash over Canadian real estate?

Some people say, absolutely. We’re now building towards a robust Spring housing market, they think. The first decent one in four years.

Realtor hopium? Or will historic political changes in the States – a country that has economically attacked us, meddled in our political system and threatened annexation – be the Viagra our flaccid MLS craves?

Hey, it’s possible. And the latest stats show we could use a little go-juice.

In Vancouver sales last month tanked more than 10% year/year and were 22% below the long-term average. Prices have fallen about 5%. In the godless GTA, similar. Sales off 7%. Average selling prices weaker by 3%. In Cowgirl city, deals collapsed 15% and prices faded a little. In confused Victoria, sales were off 7% and prices gained a tad. Everywhere, listings are weak and DOM too long.

Yes, houses still cost a stupid amount. Yup, interest rates ticked up a little thanks to bond yields last month and the latest quarter-point bump by the CB.

Bur the real reason this market is so limp is confidence. People buy houses (that they might not even afford) when they feel confident about their economic future. Interest rates matter. The economy matters. What Mom wants matters. But the most salient factor is the feeling things are going to be okay. You’ll keep your job. Daily life will be manageable. And the house will be an investment – because other people will admire what you did and wish they had what you acquired.

Trump, and his war on Canada, changed a lot of that. The headlines have been dire and combative. Tariffs are scary. We’ve been shedding jobs. Stelco’s a big deal. Fuel costs have jumped and inflation is back. Talk of recession mingled with that 51st-state crap was worrisome. Then atop it all came separatist yahoos in Alberta and sovereigntist dreamers in Quebec. Too much stress. It all sapped confidence.

The first word in that latest real estate board release from Toronto says it all: “Uncertainty.”

Well, there is less now. Just look at how stock markets reacted the day after Trump was thumped and Dems won both the House and the Senate in a decisive fashion. Investors figured out fast there will be no MAGA agenda for at least the next six years, that the next president will be a blue guy (or woman), and extremism is so… over.

Along with that came the expectation the Iran war will inevitably end – the logic behind a stunning 8% drop in oil prices yesterday. Yields fell as the US dollar declined and investors fuelled a bond rally. The lower greenback pushed the loonie higher, and also stiffened gold while lessening odds of monetary action.

Most importantly, hopes grew rapidly that a hobbled, angry lame duck president will be more likely to arrive at a trade deal with Canada. After all, tariffs against our nation were a factor in the defeat of Republican incumbents in a mess of border states.

So that’s the expectation.

Less war, lower energy costs and a reduction in inflation.

Lower bond yields and a weaker US$ taking pressure off central banks like the Fed to increase interest rates in 2027.

A more trade-friendly, less protectionist Congress forcing the White House to drop ridiculous, antique import levies that have ignited a global trade war, messed up supply chains and increased consumer prices.

A deal with Carney. Lower tariffs. More stable employment. Swelling confidence.

Of course Trump is still the US president, and we have two years of disruption ahead. Inflation will take a long time to subside. No trade deal is yet on the table. They’re still fighting and bombing in Ukraine. Iran remains an open question. Mortgage rates are elevated. There will be no quick fix. Oh yeah, and it’s November. The suckiest month of the year.

But, after Tuesday night, there is hope change is inevitable, in Airdrie, Windsor, Moncton and everywhere else. A decade of the orange guy, of the most corrupt, dangerous, unreliable and destructive American government in our lifetimes, is kaput.

The world will look a lot different in 100 days. Save this post.

About the picture: “Here’s Cooper enjoying the good life in Aruba, as are we,” write Heather and Fred from Surrey. “Happy to get away from rainy Vancouver weather for a while. Thanks for all you do to educate the masses on real estate and investing. We read your blog religiously every day.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth2garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/11/05/is-that-it-4/