Young no more

Are we aging out?

Yesterday this pathetic yet athletic blog talked about changes the Carney guys want to make to the way people save for and finance their retirements. (Trust us, trashing RRIFs is just the start.)

Today let’s yak about first-time, dreamy-eyed, dewey young first-time homebuyers.

Except they’re not. Young. Or moist. No more, and it’s a big change in society with as-yet unknown consequences.

For context, let’s start with a florid report written annually by the National Association of Realtors in the US – an analysis if who the real estate buyers are. They’ve been doing this now for 45 years, so the data is growing. And it’s not good.

Canadians tend to think Americans have it easy when it comes to getting a house. Prices are way lower. Incomes are higher. Mortgages last thirty years at the same rate. Interest can be tax-deductible. And in many places you don’t need a bejesus big furnace or a Siberian Husky.

But the Yanks have a housing crisis, too.

The overall median age of first-time buyers in the USA hit a record last year, and is still there. It’s 40. In 2020 the age was thirty. By the way, new buyers who used mortgage financing to buy, averaged 36 years. Those who bought with cash have a median age of 54.

For repeat buyers, it’s more extreme. In 1981, when the survey began, they averaged 36. Today the average age is 62. No typo. Sixty-two. “As the share of the population aged 65 and older grows,” says the report, “it is reasonable to assume more homeowners in this age group will make housing trades, along with the financial ability to do so. The lock-in effect of low-rate mortgages may be keeping younger homeowners in place.”

Also notable is the pitiful share of overall purchases being made by first-time buyers – now just 21% of total residential real estate activity. Recently a spurt in mortgage rates – to an average of 7% – has accentuated a trend decades in the making.

Okay, so how do we stack up? And what does this mean?

Turns out things are shockingly similar but probably worse north of the border. Not a lot. But enough.

While first-timers constitute a fifth of the American market, CMHC reports in Canada this group makes up a scant 12% of all mortgage transactions. Two decades ago fully half of national sales were to couples just entering the market. Now most rent. Especially in Ontario – where newbie purchasers account for a mere 10% of market activity.

And are Canadians aging out as fast?

Yep. Canada has also hit that 40-year marker for first-time buyers’ median age. A record nationally. In fact, there is data showing the typical new buyer in Vancouver is now an average of 46 years old. That might mean becoming mortgage-free by age 71. Yeah!

By the way, CMHC reports the share of buyers over the age of 35 has hit about 40% – up sturdily from 30% just two years ago. Of course, the way people are buying has changed – as gifts from family take on a huge role, plus the roping of aging parents and family members into co-signing for home loans. Ottawa says 54% of first-timers shared that purchase with someone other than a spouse or partner, while two-thirds of the youngest buyers avoided the stress test by using family money or credit. Four in ten get their downpayments directly from that venerable financial empire, the Bank of Mom.

The point here is simple. Canada and the US have followed similar patterns, supported by governments in both countries that have encouraged the financialization of real estate. House are not homes any more. They’re assets. Real estate is a repository of wealth. It’s a financial plan. For many, it’s also the totality of their retirement plan – pay off that house, collect a public pension after spending what you earn in a whole lifetime, with a big chunk of that going to mortgage payments.

The problem is that this strategy falls apart when real estate values inflate wildly beyond wage gains, leading to epic levels of debt. It makes no sense when ownership overhead – financing, property taxes, monthly fees, insurance premiums, utilities, maintenance – far exceed the cost of renting. And it really fails where the capital value of housing declines, when tax-free gains turn into non-deductible losses and equity’s erased. Then that massive financial premium of owning over renting is nothing but a sinkhole for personal wealth.

And that’s where a growing number of Canadians and Americans find themselves. Sucked into a real estate vortex that is making them poorer – after watching their parents have the opposite experience.

It’s time for the elected class to stop pushing. It ain’t working.

About the picture: ” I am responding to your continual plea for more dog pics,” wroites Don. “This is Copper, my son’s twelve year old beagle, still determined to catch a chipmunk after all the years of trying!”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/11/09/young-no-more/