Thoughts on the 2026 Tax-Loss Season

Source: Gary Tanashian 10/15/2026

Gary Tanashian of Notes from the Rabbit Hole shares his thoughts as we get closer to tax-loss selling season.

This year, many stock sectors rallied consistently or, at worst, went sideways. These are not tax-loss selling candidates. But there is one area that stands out from the pack, where tax-loss selling and future opportunity are concerned. That is the area of strategic/critical minerals, which were so well pumped by geopolitical dynamics in 2025 and kicked to the curb in 2026.

That was the inevitable fallout of too much speculative interest chasing exciting stories. Valid stories over the long run, in my opinion, but stories nonetheless. Stories tend to unwind painfully in the stock market.

As a side note, I anticipate we’ll see similar fallout in 2027 from this year’s AI/Semiconductor stories. Again, it’s a situation that is more than valid on the big picture, but it’s a matter of momentum and distortion. That is what tends to get unwound.

While there are plenty of tax-loss buy opportunities in the precious metals, broader commodities, and a few discrete stock market sectors, I’d like to focus on the Critical Minerals/Materials space, because that is where the hype was most noticeable in 2025 and the downtrends are most noticeable in 2026.

The areas we’ll focus on as strategic and/or specialty materials are Rare Earth Elements, Lithium/Battery Materials, and, to a degree, Uranium. There are others, but these three are a focus, personally.

I’ll pick two junior-level items from each category. For example, in REE, the more mainstream and developed likes of MP Materials Corp. (MP:NYSE) and Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY:OTCMKTS) are not included, even though they may well also provide a tax-loss opportunity. It’s in the smaller, more speculative group that the bigger upside explosions and downside fallouts have occurred.

REE

Let’s start with the owner of the prospective Tanbreez Rare Earth property in southern Greenland, Critical Metals Corp. (CRML:NASDAQ).

It has a more intact chart than the second, more speculative item in this category because it has garnered attention from the U.S. government and is making significant inroads in its development and future business as an operating mine.

CRML is one I view positively from both fundamental and tax-loss seasonal perspectives.

I do not currently own it, but am about ‘this’ close and may own it before this article is published.

2026 high: US$32.15, current price: US$6.54

The more speculative REE is The Metals Co. (TMC:NASDAQ).

Talk about speculative! TMC plans to extract REE from the ocean floor.

There are many more hurdles in its way than the above. But risk/reward players and/or strict tax-loss traders may take note.

I do not own TMC and have no imminent plans to own it (although tax-loss selling/buying season is an extended process).

2026 high: US$11.35, current price: US$2.82

Lithium

Standard Lithium Ltd. (SLI:TSX.V; SLI:NYSEAMERICAN) owns portions of the Smackover resource in Texas and Arkansas. Like CRML above, I consider SLI further along the development curve.

In my opinion, its primary headwind has been the entire Lithium sector’s fall from grace (and hype).

I do not own SLI, and have no immediate plan to buy it. Again, tax-loss season is a process.

2026 high: US$6.40, current price: US$1.43

Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC:TSX; LAC:NYSE) is one that garnered much hype in 2025 as the U.S. government got involved (government investment and/or loans were quite a hype machine in 2025), and Lithium in general had a honeymoon phase prior to the 2026 price correction in the commodity.

It has an offtake agreement with GM for its Thacker Pass property in Nevada.

I have no position in LAC and no imminent plan to buy it.

2026 high: US$10.52, current price: US$2.20

Uranium

NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE:TSX; NXE:NYSE) has long been my favored play on Uranium’s future, as it develops the Rook I project in the Athabasca Basin.

I do not currently own it, but am watching it closely for purchase, potentially for investment beyond tax-loss goals.

2026 high: US$13.96, current price: US$8.47

Finally, we have Uranium/REE combo, Energy Fuels Inc. (EFR:TSX; UUUU:NYSEAMERICAN), which produces Uranium, Vanadium, and processes other Rare Earths in the U.S. (Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and Arizona).

I like the “combo” aspect and the fact that UUUU is taking growth initiatives. But at this time, I am just watching and waiting.

2026 high: US$27.90, current price: US$9.27

Final Thoughts

Tax-loss season (TLS) can be a funny thing. Some of the items above appear to be presenting an opportunity right now, and a longer-term investor (with a positive 2027 view, as I have) could start to nibble. But in my experience, TLS often seems to drag on before a good low is made. It is only mid-October, after all.

So a measure of patience is called for. But I strongly believe that the sectors noted above, if not all of the individual stocks, will be much higher at some point in 2027 than they are now.

CRML and NXE are once-and-future speculative holdings in NFTRH portfolios. UUUU follows up at a close third in priority.

Good luck out there as we wrap up 2026!

You can view more from Gary here.

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1. Gary Tanashian: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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