10 Times More Hurricanes Like Katrina Expected
Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.
New model for predicting cyclones
“Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model,” explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.
The study is based on data from monitoring stations along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, where the daily tide levels have been recorded all the way back to 1923. Rapid changes in sea level show that there has been a tropical storm. The map shows cloud cover and ocean temperatures when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005. Warm colors show ocean temperatures exceeding 28° C which can strengthen hurricanes.
Credit: Background image: NASA/GSFC
The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many ‘Katrinas’ will there be per decade?
Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years.
Now 10 times as many storms like Katrina are expected
“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.
Credit: Niels Bohr Institute
“If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every other year,” says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.
The extreme storm surge from Superstorm Sandy in the autumn 2012 flooded large sections of New York and other coastal cities in the region – here you see Marblehead, Massachusetts. New research shows that such hurricane surges will become more frequent in a warmer climate.
Article in PNAS
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Whistler Blowers, Insiders
Global warming is a complete and total fraud. And it’s now being called “climate change” because almost everyone knows the earth isn’t warming up anymore.
idiot
http://science.time.com/2013/01/08/2012-was-the-hottest-year-in-u-s-history-and-yes-its-climate-change/
FACT CHECK:
Katrina was barely a category 3 when it made landfall. Was listed as only the 6th most powerful hurricane to hit the US in it’s weather recorded history. Destruction and deaths were due to torrential flooding caused by the levy system around New Orleans failing. The storm was no worse than any other. It only got more press because of the flooding deaths and destruction to New Orleans. Less than a month later, the fourth most powerful storm ever, RITA – y’know the forgotten storm – made landfall in the Sabine Pass just barely under a category 4, with sustained winds of 120 miles per hour and wrecked a good section of Texas and Louisiana. I know, I was there. I sat in my living room through the night clutching a cross and wishing the heck I had evacuated the day before.
Saying that more “Katrina” size storms are expected is nothing to be alarmed over. Again, the only reason Katrina was so deadly and costly was due to poor maintenance and planning in regards to the levies around New Orleans.