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How much harm is SARS-CoV2 Delta variant doing? Sydney's troubles provides reliable metrics of this carnage

Thursday, August 26, 2021 20:22

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The Pundit continues to have conversations with people who are sceptical that the COVD-19 outbreaks are a real health crisis.

These sceptics are driven by genuine concern about the enormous economic and social disruption occurring during this epidemic. The Pundit feels this “carnage” too.

It’s good that they worry about this “shitstorm” as they call it.

But often it seems they don’t have skills look hard and sceptically at the medical and biological damage, partly because evidence for this difficult to find unless you peer hard and aggressively to search for reliable health indicators and have biomedical research skills to find and interpret them.

Here are some findings from the Pundit looking at NSW Government health sources, supplemented with some most recent numbers from https://www.covid19data.com.au/, whom the Pundit admires and thanks.

First, how frequently are people dying from the Delta strain given they are infected?

This table shows a crude case fatality ratio based on counts of “local” infection in NSW.

These are almost exclusively caused by a single Delta variant strain of the virus.

As can be seen , local infection numbers took of explosively in July-August 2021.

One column in the table give the crude estimate of fatality rate (CFR) which is close to 1 death per 200 infections.

The problem with this raw death metric is that at the time deaths occurs, there are many detected infections in living people who will die at a later date and who don’t get included in the metric. With infections doubling every week or so, about half the deaths will be missed.

The crude CFR measure is biased and is almost certainly an underestimate. We deserve to know the true value, but that a time consuming bit of public health maths.

One way to (partly) correct for this bias is to use a different denominator in the ratio, that in effect gives more infected people time to die, and be inclused in the CFR fraction calculated. To do this, the Pundit used cumulative case numbers 14 days before the death count number in question, assuming severely sick people take on average two weeks to die. This metric is called CFR lag adjusted in the table.

This adjustment for indicates that death rates from COVID-19 are 10 per 1000 infections. Which is a pretty brutal statistic.

There are other brutal statics to look at in the Sydney outbreak though:

In this table ratios, for hospital admissions and intensive care unit admissions analogous to the CFR mortality metric were also calculated and exhibited.

Hospital admissions are running at 150 new admissions a day per 1000 people, which is pretty sobering.

But it is the last ratio in the table, considered in combination with the CFR values that really jolted the Pundit.

In excess of 40 percent of people entering the ICU with COVID-19 are likely to die, and there are 20 to 30 ICU admissions per 1000 infections in Sydney.

That’s a shitstorm that make the Pundit really sad.

Source: http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2021/08/how-much-harm-is-sars-cov2-delta.html

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Comments

Total 1 comment

Anonymous

Where is the calculation for vaccinations related to the above? Do those high numbers have anything to do with all of them being forced to take the vaccine???

Aug 27, 2021, 1:07 pm 0 Reply

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