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Possible trend of improvement in the odds of staying out of hospital in Sydney

Wednesday, September 15, 2021 3:25

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Revised 15 Sept 2021.

Previous posts at this blog have pointed out the importance of hospitalisation outcomes in understanding what is happening and what to do about the serious coronavirus outbreak in New South Wales.

One of the messages GMO Pundit is advocating is that hospitalisation statistics may provide an early signal of continuing improvement in managing the distressing outbreak usually discussed in terms of increasing numbers of diagnosed infections. These high case numbers are genuinely worrying, not least because they accompanied by some seriously adverse health effects for many people and their families and pose huge challenges for medical staff in hospitals.

Extremely informative weekly surveillance reports are available from the New South Wales public health agencies. Another just issuing today (15 Sept 2021) for week 34, ending 28th August provides and opportunity to update this post as the epidemic and available statistics continues to evolve

From these reports is possible to obtain weekly statistics for the chances of staying away from hospital and the intensive care unit

The numbers for weekly new diagnosed cases and weekly admissions to hospital are large and relatively precise as measures of success in managing the outbreak and mitigating harm.

What hasn’t been much commented about to the Pundit’s knowledge, is how these hospitalisation stats are a predictable trend that can be projected forward to suggest future improvements are likely.

This is shown in the graph below produced by GMO Pundit from New South Wales government reports

The graphic provides a simple summary of likely improvement in health protection outcomes from the heroic public health effort in New South Wales. (These include vaccinating 3,829,992 people (47 percent of those eligible) by 21 August.)

Week 34 ends 28 August 2021

With these new data the trend seen in the earlier reports is less obvious. But there is an overall pattern of lower risk of hospital and ICU admission in the last 4 weeks of the series compared to the first 4 weeks.

The Pundit suggests that this trend is is driven by the rapid and targeted rollout of vaccination protection in New South Wales and that, hopefully, we can expect further (~2-fold) improvement over the next several weeks, mitigating to some extent the severe stress on hospital services from increasing case numbers.

The plausibility of this conjecture is reinforced by a clear cut trend of the burden of infection from the elderly to age groups under 50-years of age over the course of the outbreak, who are less likely than the elderly to be hospitalised and go to the intensive care unit. This is discussed in a following post: Age-shifts in burden of infection are helping to soften the damage to health in NSW from COVID-19 Delta variant ).

Afternote 9 Sept 2021.

Improvements in disease outcome are seen in other countries in the late stages of the epidemic. Eg here are calculation for England based on government records.

And there is other encouraging news:

And this (10 Sep 2021)

14/09/2021

And this:

Source: http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2021/09/steady-precictable-trend-of-improvement.html

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