Read the Beforeitsnews.com story here. Advertise at Before It's News here.
Profile image
By GMO Pundit (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views
Now:
Last hour:
Last 24 hours:
Total:

COVID-19 mortality rates improved in Victoria coinciding with SARS-2 Omicron but weeks of deaths are already locked in

% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.


Huge numbers of infections have been a serious worry in Melbourne Australia since the Omicron variant epidemic wave burst into activity late December 2021. High patient numbers are challenge for the hospital system.

Amid this crisis some encouraging epidemic news has been understandably largely side-lined.

Death rates (lives lost be 100 infection have dropped). 

Perhaps the reason is that interpretation of these matters is tricky, and it is bitter sweet news. It’s easy to underestimate these rates. One reason is that deaths lag the onset of illness, and in a rapidly expanding outbreak this lag has to be accounted for.

Pundit think is best to get this news out.

In the absence of detailed patient records, here is one approach to finding out what’s happening. 

First the time course of cases and deaths are as follows:

In this graph, daily case numbers in blue have been scaled by multiplying by 0.59/100 to align with the numbers of lives lost per day

This multiplier accurately predict the level of death following infection during the October-November Delta variant wave, but there is a lag of death number behind infection numbers.

In the New Year, infection numbers took off like a rocket– this is largely Omicron variant.

But daily lives lost, thankfully not so much of a surge, but there was a lag before they indeed did rise too.

The make more sense of these we need to look at cumulative numbers.

Here they are for infections numbers against date of announcement

These first wave in this period amounted to some 100,000 cases and was caused by the Delta variant of coronavirus. Omicron variant was detected when there were about 100,000 cumulative cases but there was a lag before it dramatically influenced case number counts. Bear this profile in mind when considering the next graph.

Deaths plotted against cases enables visualisation of the severity of mortality.

The graph below plots the cumulative number of deaths versus the cumulative number of infections 11 days earlier, when on average these people would have first suffered symptoms and been identified. (NSW Health Service provide this estimate in their weekly reports on COVID-19.)

The first part of this graph has a constant slope. This is the time of the Delta wave of the Victorian  COVID-19 epidemic.

The constant slope indicate very sadly that 5.9 people died in every 1000 detected infections.

Remarkable the slope changed about the time in the epidemic that Omicron variant started to circulate.

This softens the blow of the epidemic a bit. 

We thus from the slop of the graph, can expect at the moment about 3 or fewer deaths per 1000 Omicron variant infections.

The Lag is a killer.

But further rises in deaths will surely come. We already know the daily case numbers that will produce those deaths, and daily deaths are likely to average near 30 lives a day over the next two weeks.

But if daily infections moderate the next few day, there will be respite around three weeks ahead.

That’s the reality of an 11-day lag.



Source: http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2022/01/covid-19-mortality-rates-improved-in.html


Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world.

Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.

"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!


Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST


Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!

HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation

Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.

MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser!  Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen! 
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover -  Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%!  (See Video)

Report abuse

    Comments

    Your Comments
    Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

    MOST RECENT
    Load more ...

    SignUp

    Login

    Newsletter

    Email this story
    Email this story

    If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

    If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.