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Changeable with sunny intervals

Monday, August 27, 2018 13:35

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As regular walkers we always check the Met Office weather forecast before going out on a walk. We aren’t looking for pinpoint accuracy, merely an indication of what to expect, what to wear and what to take with us just in case. For hill walking we take waterproofs anyway, whatever the weather and whatever the forecast.

In our experience Met Office forecasts are pretty good, but in recent years they do not seem to be as reliable as they were. Often the weather we actually get seems to have been better than the forecast, but forecasts change throughout the day so this perception isn’t easy to nail down.

Of course there may be nothing to nail down. It may indeed be a matter of perception. The Met Office puts so much resource into projecting itself as the premier national authority on all matters meteorological that it may inadvertently lead us into expecting more than it can possibly deliver.

Attaching names to storms, giving scary colour-coded warnings about weather we once saw as normal, pushing the climate alarm game, all this may create expectations which the Met Office cannot actually meet. We may not be aware of having enhanced expectations but they may be there, in the background, colouring our perceptions.

Our weather is variable and frequently unpredictable until the moment it happens. Met Office predictions improve over the years but they improve slowly and for all we know may not be improving at all at the moment. Promote, promote, promote is the modern way, but as a supposedly sober, technical outfit the Met Office may not be getting the balance right.

Today our local weather was significantly better than forecast. We were not surprised.

Source: https://akhaart.blogspot.com/2018/08/changeable-with-sunny-intervals.html

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